The Research On The Export Duration Time Of Manufacturing Industry From The Perspective Of Heterogeneity

Since the reform and opening up,China has established the status of the trading power,playing the role of the world’s factory.However,since the financial crisis,domestic labor costs continue to rise,the external market demand is also decreased,and the "demographic dividend" which has been relied for a long time will be exhausted.Under the background that the countries all over the world are eager to come out of the crisis,the United States and Germany are the representative of the advanced countries of eye-catching performance,taking the first out of the crisis,and put forward the slogan of remodeling the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry;on the other hand,India and Mexico as the representative of the emerging market countries also use resources and cost advantage to seize the international market,Chinese manufacturing export trade is facing a double squeeze,the situation is not optimistic.Most of the existing researches regard China itself as the research object,lack of international vision and international comparative study,which make the understanding of the trade pattern slightly biased.At the same time,the evolution of the trade pattern and form is not only reflected in the total reduction but also reflected in the aspect of incremental fluctuations.A considerable part of the existing literature studies the trade related problems from the perspective of the total,and this article is mainly from the micro data.The dynamic changes of trade relations as the starting point,first theoretically explains the "zero trade flow" problem which is difficult to explain in the traditional trade,from the logic perspective clarifying the factors leading to trade relationship breakdown;secondly,based on a global perspective,studied and compared the main global manufacturing exporters‘ trade duration characteristics and related effecting factors.Then,from the 7 aspects of overall Chinese,regional division,ownership,export destination,product quality,product core degree and the type of economy,described the distribution characteristics of Chinese manufacturing enterprises export duration;finally,using the binary discrete model to empirically test the enterprise products heterogeneity on the influence of the export duration of the manufacturing enterprises.From the national-product-national matching chain:(1)Considering the world’s major manufacturing export country duration,China has developed the same capability of the maintenance of manufacturing export trade relations compared with the countries such as the United States,Japan and Germany.However,there are significant differences in the survival function form of the manufacturing product export or the cumulative size of the survival rate of each time interval.Specifically,the tilt of the Chinese manufacturing export survival function is relatively small in a relatively short period of time.But from the local view of the graphic,after a certain threshold it did not appear obvious slowdown,meanwhile other countries generally showed the basic characteristics that,a relatively steep appears in short period of time interval,and gradually becomes flat after a threshold.In addition,Chinese manufacturing industry has a large decline in the survival rate during the past 4 years,from 70.39% down to 27.51%,the cumulative decline of up to 42.88%.Compared with the traditional industry powers,China’s manufacturing exports are still of large uncertainty,and even the manufacturing enterprises which have a longtime trade relationship,will still face a greater risk of failure compared with other developed countries.(2)From the impact factor of the manufacturing export duration,in general,either the feature variables of the export target country or of the products domain are all have significant effect on national export duration,but from different countries,some variables have significantly different impact on manufacturing exports duration,for example,China manufacturing products has limited appeal for those higher per-capita-income countries,although the total amount is closely related,but the relationship is not stable.From the enterprise-product(product portfolio)-nation matching relationship chain:(1)From the perspective of the overall characteristics of China’s manufacturing enterprise export trade relationship duration and the characteristics of samples,on the whole,survival rate of China’s export enterprises decreased with the increase of export trade duration,but obviously slowed down 3 years later;from the perspective of the region,compared to the central and western regions,enterprises in the eastern regions has the higher stability of the product export;from the perspective of ownership,the survival rate of private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises is significantly higher than that of the state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises;from the perspective of export destination,export trade of the enterprises exporting to developed countries reflects stronger enduring and stability;from the perspective of the quality of products,enterprises manufacturing high quality products has higher export productivity,longer duration,the quality of export products help to improve the enterprise’s export duration;from the perspective of core level,there are significant differences of lifetime in different degree of core product,with the core level of the enterprise products increased,its exports survival probability significantly improved;from the perspective of economic category,the export survival rate of enterprises producing consumer goods is bigger than those producing intermediate goods and capital goods.(2)The higher the quality of the enterprise product export,the more favorable to the product’s export duration.Through the continuous consolidation of its own quality advantages,enterprises occupy a higher technical content and quality of the product list,to help obtain continuous export dividends.In addition,increasing the types of enterprise products and improving the core degree of enterprise products can reduce the probability of failure of the export of enterprise products,thereby prolonging the duration of export products.The export duration of enterprises in the eastern region is more likely to be affected by the improvement of quality of products,product types and the core level of the product.In addition,compared to state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises,the export duration of foreign enterprises and private enterprises is more susceptible to the improvement of product quality,product variety and product core level.