| It has been repeatedly verified by historical practices that fully exploring the development of a nation's manufacturing industry is critically important to boom its society and economy as well as to promote its international position.Currently,though Chinese manufacturing industry has greatly contributed to its economy,it is still encountering some non-negligible difficulties and bottlenecks.To guarantee the development goal of “stabilizing export and promoting growth” together with ameliorating global survival environment,it is inadequate both for the government and the academic circle to focus solely on scale stimulation and exporting diversification,keeping stable export partnerships and deepening domestic technical complexity(DTC)as an exporting country could play more important functions.This dissertation focuses on the above mentioned two topics,further differentiates manufacturing industry into 27 subindustries.By comparing with other developed countries,this dissertation reviews and summarizes measurement(estimation)methods and models,affective factors and backward effects of the two topics in current literatures,then draws its main conclusions after empirical study,and finally proposes its policy suggestions.The framework of this dissertation as follows: firstly,based on the entry cost model of heterogenous enterprises,three stages searching model due to asymmetric information and other explanations,this dissertation tries to theoretically explain the reasons why fragmented trade relationship emerged.Then it constructs a five-sector production model so as to find DTC deepening threshold of export products when international demand is inefficient due to production cost increase and when international demand is efficient due to production factors increase.After that,it specifically analyzes the feasible paths for promotion and constraint mechanism generated by exporting duration time(EDT)on DTC of export products.Secondly,by using the HS 6-digit product data of the 27 differentiate industries of top 10 strong competency manufacturing counties from CEPII-BACI of from 2000 to2014,after having effectively processed some time intervals and left and right censoreddata,this dissertation uses non-perimeter estimated K-M product-limit estimation method,descriptively analyzes and resolves the median survival time.Then,based on international comparison,this dissertation further analyzes the estimated results of survival rates of 11 industries whose overall competitiveness are higher than other countries,10 industries which are located on top level and 6 in middle,respectively.Besides there exists a negative time-depended EDT with a threshold effect is re-verified,this dissertation also discovers that in sample period,Chinese manufacturing industries could generally sustain a long time with a slight survival rate decrease.However,beverage,fur,bamboo and woods,furniture and non-metal industries suffered higher than 80% risk rate increase and great fluctuation at the earlier stage of exporting(1st-4th year).Thirdly,after it has gotten the total input coefficient matrix of the three technical departments and DTC indicator of China from 2000 to 2014 by using the split non-competitive input-output table,and following comparisons of these matrix and indicators with world strong manufacturing countries,neighbor countries and new emerged countries as a whole,and international comparisons between labor-intensive and technique-intensive industries,this dissertation finds that,except tele-communication and tabaco industries,25 Chinese industries are gradually deepening their DTC with oscillation;mid-leveled technical industries have a highest growth rate,while the low-technique-intensive industries retain development potentials.As a whole,except a moderate development potential in labor-intensive industry,China's international technical competitiveness is lagging far behind the developed countries especially for the technique-intensive industries which are not only lagging behind America,German and Japan,but also far behind India.This dissertation reveals that it is necessary for Chinese manufacturing industries to keep an eye on the dangerous “lower-end-locked”trend during their DTC deepening progress.Finally,when the results of the four cointegration tests of DEPTH-1 and DEPTH-2are denied on 1% significance level,this dissertation analyzes the interaction coefficients of the quality of national market governance system,market maturity level and intellectual patents protection intensity on Chinese manufacturing industry DTC.After that,taking labor force,capital and system as the factor constraint conditions andfollowing a left censored basic regression,this dissertation tests the interaction coefficient of EDT on DTC;proceeds group regressions according to GDP per capita and OECD products and technical category respectively;proceeds a left and right censored aggregate regression,and a robustness test,hence gains the relatively precise empirical data of EDT backward effect on DTC.The results show that,EDT has a significant effect;free trade agreement,trade openness,human capital and GDP per capita of exporting destination country have positive effect,while export price,vertical specialization level and export amount have negative effect.However,above results would vary according to the methods of how the “censored” is processed.Based on its study,this dissertation proposes its policy recommendations: 1,to strengthen the stability of export trade relations and properly Increase activity those inactive;2,to reasonably optimizate the critical value of the ratio of skilled labor force and unskilled labor force and focus on the cultivation of industrial reserve in a rapidly growing and relatively small industry;3,to guide enterprises to integrate moderately into leader which will be encouraged to play the role of technological innovation in order to stimulate peers to overcome "technological innovations inert";4,to actively guide relevant institutions to integrate industrial and regional advantages and promote the development of the financial industry which will reduce the financing constraints faced by enterprises through enriching the types of financial intermediaries and improving the financial services system;5,to support high-tech productive services to make it a medium for the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry with a post-link and efficient integration of service industry and manufacturing industry;6,to increase the cultivation of knowledge-based human capital,R & D institutions capital and enhance the advantages of key technological innovation and new product supply capacity in order to promote the improvement of innovation efficiency;7,to gradually adjust the strategy of foreign capital introduction in order to accelerate the process of independent innovation,giving priority to the introduction of urgently needed technology and high-tech industries in the growth period,guiding foreign capital to properly embed activities of local R & D;8,toimprove the embedded position of global value chain because of a new round of "reform dividend" from the comprehensive deepening of institutional reform improving the quality of market governance system,promoting the process of marketization,and strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights;and 9,to improve the technical content,make appropriate use of the penetration price strategy,actively participate in all kinds of free trade agreements,and reduce export costs through international cooperation. |
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