The Study Of Potential Estimation And Path Optimization Of Chinese Industrial Transformation And Upgrading

Under the constraints of rising labor costs and increasingly destruction in resources and environment, the industrial transformation and upgrading has become a key problem in Chinese economic development. In past research, the industrial upgrading is discussed mainly from the view of global value chain. From the perspective of environment and resource constraints, the research is only focused on the negative influences of energy consumption and pollution on economic development. From the perspective of green growth, the research is focused on the measurement and application of green productivity. Chinese industries should not only promote technological innovative ability, but also change the development mode from relying on resources in the past to intensive ways, achieving the green growth with the push of technology change.In the framework of green productivity, this paper studies the potentials estimation and path optimization of Chinese industrial transformation and upgrading. It has important practical significance in changing the dilemma and achieve a breakthrough of upgrading in Chinese industries. Meanwhile, it provides a new idea in theoretical research framework and new evidence in empirical research.Based on the expansion of Solow Model, the green development mode of industrial sector is analyzed. The logical relation of industrial transformation and upgrading with sustainable development and green mode is stated theoretically. Then, a new connotation of industrial transformation and upgrading is explained in three aspects of value promotion, energy saving and environment friendly. Chinese industries should not only promote added value of products in the manufacturing process, but also decrease the energy consumption in inputs and reduce the pollutant discharge in outputs. The development course and status in Chinese industries is analyzed based on the existing data and compared with those of the developed countries. It is shown that the problems of low added value and high energy inputs and pollutant discharge are obvious in Chinese industrial development. There is still much room for promotion and development in Chinese industries.In theoretical parts, the estimation methods of green productivity are stated and the framework of green productivity is used in the study of industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the deficiencies existing in the directional distance function, the directional endogenesis, relative distance and exogenous weights in objective function are improved respectively. Based on the new model of green productivity, the model of potential estimation of industrial transformation and upgrading is built. Then the model of path optimization of industrial transformation and upgrading is constructed based on dynamic multi-objective optimization model, including the objective functions and constraint conditions. After comparison, NSGA-II of genetic algorithm is chosen to solve the DMOP model. The algorithm is designed and four main optimization schemes are determined. As to the forecast of future path of industrial transformation and upgrading, grey forecasting method is used to predict the relevant coefficients.In empirical parts, the potentials of industrial transformation and upgrading are estimated firstly. Based on the data of 36 industries in 2-digit from 2001 to 2013, green total factor productivity and energy-environment efficiency are estimated and compared. The upgrading potentials of industries in value promotion, energy saving and environment friendly are estimated respectively. The results show that the potentials are different between industries in promoting added value, decreasing energy inputs and pollutant discharge. According to the problems in preliminary results of upgrading potentials, the model of potential estimation of industrial transformation and upgrading is modified to get the real value of potentials. The results of model before modification are under-estimated, compared with those of after modification.Then, the path of industrial transformation and upgrading is optimized and predicted. Based on the industrial data from 2006 to 2010, the path in the period of 11th "Five-year Plan" is optimized to get the Pareto optimum. After the comparison of different optimization schemes, the results show that under current technical level and constraint conditions, the added value can be improved and the energy consumption and pollutant can be reduced through changing the output proportion among industries. Furthermore, the data of 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 are used respectively to optimize and predict the path in the period of 12th "Five-year Plan" and 13th "Five-year Plan". The results show that, through reducing some industries production scale and prioritizing some other industries, Chinese industries can produce more added-value and reduce the energy consumption and pollutant discharge, combining the objectives of value promotion, energy saving and pollutant discharge.Finally, both the research results and the shortages are concluded. The future research contents are proposed.