| Nowadays,housing prices have become the significant livelihood issue and social problem.As an important asset allocation method,housing price fluctuations will significantly affect people's direction of consumption or investment.Meanwhile,they will affect the transfer of residents' s total wealth in different groups,which may widen the gap between rich and poor and lead to unfair social distribution.Under the background that housing price fluctuations are increasingly complex and housing price differentiations are increasingly intensified,it is urgent for us to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the operating mechanism of urban housing prices.As an important means of resource allocation and macro-control,financial management system and its reforms will inevitably have significant impacts on the operating mechanism of China's housing prices.However,domestic scholars have not yet systematically study the internal relationship between such two variables.So,this paper,based on the practice of fiscal decentralization reforms in China,and followed the mode of theoretical probing to empirical testing to policy designing,tries to explores the influence and mechanism of fiscal decentralization on urban housing prices and its fluctuations.In the theoretical analysis,combined with the related theories as fiscal decentralization,land finance,public goods provision and housing price formation mechanism,it puts forward the analytical framework of fiscal decentralization to local government behavior to housing prices,based on which theoretically explores the mechanism of fiscal decentralization on housing prices,and then proposes correspondent hypotheses;By introducing fiscal decentralization and other macro-economic variables,it constructs a housing price fluctuations model,which can identify the spatial heterogeneity,and then constructs a bubbles measuring model.In the empirical analysis,by taking 69 metropolitans key monitored by State Statistics Bureau as research objects and using a variety of econometric models,it analyzes the impacts of fiscal decentralization on urban housing prices and its fluctuations,through which can modify and improve the theoretical framework.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,Combined with the practice of fiscal decentralization reforms in China,this paper analyzes the total impacts of fiscal decentralization on urban housing prices.The theoretical analysis shows that,under the shocks of fiscal decentralization,the local government's orientation behaviors are greatlly changed owning to the imbalance of vertical and horizontal incentives,which have different impacts on urban housing prices through multiple transmission paths,and the total impacts depend on the results of multiple forces.The result of FE model with high robustness shows that fiscal decentralization has positive spillover impacts on urban housing prices;Meanwhile,the results of panel quantile regression model show that the impacts of fiscal decentralization on urban housing prices are heterogeneous: The positive impacts are greater in cities with lower housing prices;And the impacts exist significant regional difference.Specifically,the impacts in eastern region are greater.Secondly,it analyzes how fiscal decentralization influences urban housing prices.That is,triggering the dependence of local government on land finance is one of the transmission channels.This paper,by integrating fiscal decentralization,land finance and housing price formation mechanism into the same framework,theoretically analyzes the relationship among them,and finds that under the shocks of fiscal decentralization,the pursuit of land finance is caused by the financial imbanlance of local government,which ultimately affects housing prices.Accordingly,this paper condenses a logic pattern of fiscal decentralization to land finance to housing prices.Based on which,it makes an empirical test by using the mediating effect model and panel threshold model.The results show that,fiscal decentralization has a positive impact on land finance,land finance can push up urban housing prices,and land finance is the mediating variable to connect fiscal decentralization and urban housing prices;As fiscal decentralization reaches a certain threshold,the impact of land finance is strengthened.This means that it is only the appearance of land finance pushing up housing prices,the impact of fiscal decentralization is actually the internal cause.Thirdly,it continues to analyze how fiscal decentralization influences urban housing prices.That is,triggering the local government's different preference for different types of public goods provision is the other transmission channel.This paper,by integrating fiscal decentralization,public goods provision and housing price formation mechanism into the same framework,theoretically analyzes the relationship among them,and finds that under the shocks of fiscal decentralization,the local government's dislocation to public goods provision is caused by the horizontal competition distortion,which ultimately affects the housing prices.Accordingly,this paper condenses a logic pattern of fiscal decentralization to public goods provision to housing prices.Based on which,it makes an empirical test by using mediating effect model and panel threshold model.The results show that,fiscal decentralization has positive impacts on transportation infrastructure construction and medical and health,while has a negative impact on public education,the above three public goods all have positive impacts on urban housing prices,and public goods provision is the mediating variable to connect fiscal decentralization and urban housing prices.As fiscal decentralization reaches a certain threshold,the impacts of transportation infrastructure construction and medical and health are strengthened,while the impact of public education is weakened.Thus,the imbalance of public goods allocation under the shocks of fiscal decentralization is also an important factor for the differentiations of urban housing prices.Fourthly,by constructing housing price fluctuations model that can identify the spatial heterogeneity and bubbles measuring model,it analyzes the impacts of fiscal decentralization and other macro-economic variables on urban housing price fluctuations,and then detects the existence and degree of urban housing price bubbles.This paper,combined with the theory of housing price fluctuations,constructs a fluctuations model that can identify the spatial heterogeneity by introducing exogenous shocks of fiscal decentralization,income and interest rate,and then constructs a bubbles measuring model by decomposing housing price fluctuations and extracting the speculative bubbles.Based on which,it analyzes the characteristics of housing price fluctuations and bubbles in 69 metropolitans by using dynamic panel model.The results show that,there exists path dependence and mean reversion in urban housing price fluctuations;There exists negative and positive impacts of fiscal decentralization change and interest rate change on the speed of mean reversion,and a positive impact of income change on autocorrelation,which show that there exists urban heterogeneity in housing price fluctuations;Overall,the fluctuation parameters fall in the convergence region,which indicate that China's urban housing price fluctuations are still within the controllable range;There does not exist global housing price bubbles in China,but local bubbles happen now and then and exist regional difference.In conclusion,fiscal decentralization is an important institutional factor to push up urban housing prices and contribute to price differentiations.Therefore,to achieve the expected target of regulating housing prices,in addition to continue to implement the housing market regulation policy,there must also have the corresponding financial system reforms,which should focus on the correction of fiscal incentive distortion and imperfect of horizontal competition mechanism and so on.In view of this,this paper,based on exploring the three linkage management systems composed of the central government,region and local government,puts forward some suggestions to stabilize urban housing prices,such as promoting the fiscal incentive reform to alleviate local government's finance pressure,improving the transfer payment system and official performance appraisal mechanism,and broadening local government's financing channels and so on. |
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