| Avian influenza outbreak can not only bring serious loss to social economy,but also endanger health and life safety of the public,therefore,after outbreak of avian influenza,the governments immediately take measures,such as forced culling for inflected poultry and compulsory immunization for uninfected poultry,to prevent and control the spread of the epidemic.At present,culling poultry in inflected region is the most direct and effective measure for preventing and controlling avian influenza,but it is inevitable to bring serious loss for local farmers,so the governments in China legislate the law about the budget management on prevention and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza to compensate farmers whose poultry are culled.However,compensation policy have several problems,such as unreasonable compensation scope and compensation standard,low compensation speed,lack of supervision mechanism for compensation,so that the compensation effectiveness is not obvious.Farmers are not only the receiver of poultry compensation,but also main body of poultry production and epidemic prevention and control.When the compensation standard cannot satisfy their economic loss from culling poultry,they cannot be willing to report the epidemic and cooperate with the government for culling,and can sell the infected poultry to the market and narrowing the scale of poultry production,which have direct influence on the realization of the government compensation policy goals.Therefore,evaluating farmers’ economic loss under the impact of avian influenza,designing the reasonable compensation standard and improving the compensation policy are of great significance for preventing and controlling epidemic spread,promoting the sustainable development of poultry industry,and maintaining the social public health and life safety.Based on the survey data of farmers in Zhongwei city,Ningxia,this dissertation evaluates the economic loss of farmers feeding layer chicken and optimize the compensation policy.Firstly,this dissertation introduces the poultry production,the features of avian influenza outbreak,prevention and control of avian influenza and compensation policy,which are the bases of evaluating farmers’ loss and improve the compensation standard.Secondly,this dissertation constructs the theoretical framework of farmers’ loss,evaluates the direct,indirect and total loss for free-range farmers and scale farmers,and then analyzes the compensation degree of compensation standard in central and local government.Thirdly,this dissertation evaluates the satisfaction of free-range and scale farmers respectively using the factor analysis,analyzes the effectiveness of existing compensation policy,and then illustrates the deficiencies of the existing compensation policy.Finally,this dissertation studies farmers’ acceptable standard based on the circumstances of reporting epidemic and recovering production by using the parameter and non-parameter estimation method,and then confirms reasonable compensation standard that can motivate farmers’ reporting epidemic and recovering production.Besides,on the basis of the experience of foreign loss-sharing mechanism and compensation policy,this dissertation designs the loss-sharing mechanism in our country,and improves the compensation policy of avian influenza.The main conclusions are as follows:1.The HPAI outbreaks have obvious temporal and spatial characteristics in China.Temporal characteristics show that the frequency of HPAI outbreaks decreased and then increased,with fluctuations in 2004-2010 and 2011-2015;HPAI H5 NI was the major type of HPAI virus,and chickens had the greatest risk of being infected with HPAI,followed by ducks and geese;The HPAI outbreaks had obvious intermonthly variations and concentrated in January,February,June,and November.Spatial characteristics reveal that outbreaks were more frequent in Xinjiang,but of greater intensity in Liaoning.HPAI H5N1 appeared in 25 provinces,while HPAI H5N2 was mainly localized in Hebei and Jiangsu,and HPAI H5N6 occurred in Heilongjiang,Jiangsu,Hunan and Guangdong;HPAI viruses were most frequently detected in chickens and wild birds in northern China,while the majority of HPAI infections were identified in chickens,ducks and geese in southern China.Regionally,HPAI outbreaks were most frequent in the western region but the most intense in the eastern region.2.Farmers’ economic losses include direct and indirect economic losses,in which direct losses include layer chicken value loss,eggs loss,feed loss,equipment loss,epidemic prevention cost and handling cost in epidemic,and indirect losses include unrecovered invest cost,expected net income loss,equipment depreciation in the period of ban feeding and cost of loan interest.According to evaluation,the direct losses for free-range farmers and scale farmers are 15.21 yuan and 15.92 yuan per chicken respectively,which account for 37.03% and 32.53% of total losses,and the indirect losses for free-range farmers and scale farmers are 25.87 yuan and 33.03 yuan per chicken respectively,reaching 62.97% and 67.47% of total losses,which means indirect losses for farmers are higher than direct losses.3.Economic losses for free-range and scale farmers are 41.08 yuan and 48.95 yuan per chicken,and economics losses for scale are higher than free-range farmers,which means economic losses are different for different feeding scale.Farmers’ economic losses for different layer chicken age are different,where economic losses for from 1 month to 5 months layer chicken have increasing trend,with the largest value in 5 months,and then they experience a decreasing trend.Economic losses for free-range farmers and scale farmers with 5 months layer chicken are 64.26 yuan and 81.92 yuan per chicken respectively.4.The level of satisfaction of free-range and scale farmers on compensation policy are 47.6% and 46% respectively,which means farmers cannot satisfy compensation policy because of their losses.Specifically,the level of satisfaction of free-range and scale farmers on compensation range are 51.6% and 49.8%,the level of satisfaction of free-range and scale farmers on compensation standard are 40.8% and 39.8%,and the level of satisfaction of freerange and scale farmers on compensation speed are 46.2% and 44%,that means the level of satisfaction of free-range and scale farmers on compensation standard is lower than compensation range and compensation speed.5.By nonparametric estimation method,free-range farmers’ acceptable compensation standard internal is [21.93 yuan per chicken,22.39 yuan per chicken],and scale farmers’ acceptable compensation standard internal is [30.64 yuan per chicken,31.46 yuan per chicken] based on the circumstances of reporting epidemic and recovering production.By parametric estimation method,acceptable compensation standard for free-range farmers and scale farmers is 23.12 yuan and 33.13 yuan per chicken.Therefore,the mean acceptable compensation standard for free-range farmers and scale farmers is 22.64 yuan and 32.09 yuan per chicken.Reasonable compensation standard should be higher than farmers’ acceptable compensation standard,and also consider feeding scale and layer chicken age.6.The government should not only compensate farmers’ direct losses,but also share the farmers’ indirect losses from avian influenza.Compensation fund can be shared by government public finance,fund of animal epidemic prevention and control and poultry insurance.Besides,there are several suggestions: existing compensation policy should be legalized;compensation range should not only include culling chicken,operating cost,the contaminated eggs and feed,but include dead poultry and the damaged production equipment;compensation standard should be higher than farmers’ acceptable standard that can motivate them to report epidemic and recover production,and consider difference from feeding scale and layer chicken age;compensation speed should be improved by simplify compensation process;the supervisory mechanism for compensation should be improved systematically to ensure the effectiveness of compensation policy of avian influenza. |
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