Research On Macroeconomic Effect And Supervision Of Shadow Banking In China

The global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 brought unprecedented shocks to the US real economy and financial markets,and this huge negative impact has spread to most countries and regions around the world.When governments,international organizations and domestic and foreign scholars traced the crisis,the shadow banking began to be exposed to people's sight as one of the main behind-the-scenes drivers of the crisis,and the shadow banking was free from the gray areas beyond the supervision has aroused global concern,become the focus of research at home and abroad.Due to its own institutional environment and the stage of financial market development and other factors,China's financial crisis is not serious,but the growing size of the financial sector,the gradual improvement of the financial market system,the diversification and integration of financial management and development,making the traditional social financing structure has undergone great changes in the scale of social financing in the proportion of RMB loans continue to decline,the banking system outside the financing channels have been more and more obvious role.Based on the possible impact of the shadow banking on the macroeconomic uncertainty and the warning of the US subprime mortgage crisis,it is necessary to incorporate the macroeconomic effects and supervision of the shadow banking of China into a framework to understand and study.Therefore,the study of this paper is the right time.The introduction part mainly includes the research background and the research significance,the research thought and the research content,the research method,the innovation and the deficiency of the thesis.The text is divided into four parts,a total of six chapters.The first part is the first chapter,systematically expounded the definition of shadow banking,theoretical basis and literature review.The Chinese and foreign definitions of the shadow banking,the shadow banking has a preliminary understanding;Then it studies the theory of financial innovation such as constraint theory,circumvention financial innovation theory,technical financial innovation theory and transaction cost theory,financial intermediary theory such as "old theory",neoclassical financial intermediary theory and modern financial intermediary theory The financial liberalization theory of McKinnon and Shaw,the theory of financial liberalization and the theory of regulatory arbitrage,which provide theoretical support for the selection and research of this paper;And summarizes the domestic and foreign related literatures on the definition,scope,influence and supervision of the shadow banking,and compares the domestic and foreign research on the shadow banking,and points out the shortcomings in the research.The second part is the second chapter.The second chapter studies the development of shadow banking of China.On the basis of the definition of shadow banks with Chinese characteristics,this paper gives the recognition criteria of shadow banking of China,analyzes the composition range and operation method of shadow banking of China,estimates the shadow banking Roughly the size,analysis of the shadow banking development trend.The third part is the third chapter and the fourth chapter,also the research focus and difficulty.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis of the macroeconomic effect of shadow banking of China.The macroeconomic variables which can be observed and the macroeconomic variables which influence the shadow banking are mainly selected,including money supply,interest rate,savings and real economic growth And the five angles of inflation to discuss the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking of China.With the rapid growth of financing scale,the impact of China's shadow banking system on the macroeconomic is also growing,mainly in the following areas: First of all,the shadow banking distorted the narrow money multiplier,weakened the traditional bank's money creation effect,and the shadow banking itself has the credit creation mechanism,can create the generalized mobility,speed up the circulation speed of the currency,the multi-role common influence currency supply.Second,the emergence of shadow banking of China to accelerate the process of interest rate marketization,to the traditional bank savings business has brought some challenges.Thirdly,the shadow banking broadens the financing channels,helps to optimize the investment structure of the real economy,and can raise idle funds,enhance the liquidity of funds,to solve some of the small and medium enterprises financing problems;But at the same time shadow banking also increased the financing costs,making many funds flow to real estate,"two high and one low" and some restricted industries,easy to make the economy "hollow",affect the economic restructuring and optimization,exacerbate the accumulation of real economic risks.Finally,shadow banking can influence inflation by influencing money supply,affecting financing costs,affecting supply and demand balance,and affecting price levels.The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking of China.This paper constructs the Var vector autoregressive model,and quantifies the concrete influence of the shadow banking on the macroeconomic indicators through the Granger causality test,the impulse response function and the variance decomposition.It analyzes the influence of the shadow banking of China on the money supply,the household savings,the gross domestic product,The impact of fixed investment and inflation in the whole society,and that the shadow banking will affect the money supply in the short term,causing a strong fluctuation of the price level,which will affect the residents' savings in the long term,and will increase the fixed investment and promote the economic growth in conclusion.The fourth part is fifth chapter and the sixth chapter,.Analysis of the shadow of the macroeconomic effects of banks,know the shadow banking is not necessarily will cause asystemic financial crisis,shadow banking on the macroeconomic impact both positive and negative side,is a "double-edged sword." In the supervision of the shadow banking,to avoid disadvantages,neither laissez-faire nor denial of all.Therefore,the fourth part divides the macroeconomic effect of the shadow bank into the short-term macroeconomic effect supervision and the long-term macroeconomic effect supervision according to the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effect of the shadow banking and the conclusion of the empirical analysis.In the fifth chapter,for the shadow banking short-term will affect the money supply,resulting in the negative impact of the volatility of price volatility,put forward to expand the money supply statistics caliber,improve the monetary policy transmission mechanism,improve the monetary policy control tools to improve monetary policy regulatory framework And pointed out that should establish a diversified financing channels,standardize the shadow banking business,escort for the real economy regulatory measures.In the sixth chapter,the author puts forward some suggestions on how to construct the macro-prudential supervision framework of shadow banking of China,establish the risk early warning mechanism and information disclosure system,and strengthen the comprehensive management of the shadow banking in order to prevent the possibility of the systemic risk of the shadow banking.Supervision,and guide the healthy development of the shadow banking system.