The Research On The Risks And Supervision Of China's Shadow Banking System

For the past few years,the shadow banking system in China has experienced a rapid expansion,the scale of China's shadow banking system expands rapidly.Mood's Investors Service said that after the year 2010 the shadow banking system in China began to go crazy,and according to their measure and calculate,at 2016China's shadow banking system's asset scale has reached RMB 64.5 trillion yuan.The rapidly development of the shadow banking system in china has enlivened the financial market in China,improved our country's financial innovation ability,satisfied financing demands of different market participants,and became a beneficial supplement to China's traditional financial market.Meanwhile,because of the close relationship between the shadow banking system and the traditional commercial banking system in China,and its characteristics such as maturity mismatching,high leverage level,sophisticated capital chain,absence of effective regulation,China's shadow banking system also exposed many defects.Especially after the US sub-prime Crisis burnt out in2008,as the immediate cause of the crisis,the shadow banking system has called great concern from governments and scholars all over the world,unprecedented attention was paid to the regulation and risk identification of the shadow banking system.Therefore,research on the influence of the scale of China's shadow banking system on the stability of China's financial system,has important theoretical value and practical significance.In the first place,we collected and summarized different research about shadow banking system's definition,risk,regulation and supervision from domestic and foreign scholars,on this basis we carried out a detailed theoretical analysis on China's shadow banking system's producing,development status,characteristics,scale,main business types,current regulation and supervision situation,operation mechanism,main risks it faced to,and its impacts on China's financial system and so on.In the light of the relationship between the shadow banking system and the traditional commercial banking system,we divide China's shadow banking system into two parts,one is internal shadow banking,another is external shadow banking,with the help of some relative data information and the model used to estimate the scale of China's unobserved credit,we figured out the scale of China's internal and external shadow banking respectively,and through adding them up,we get the overall size of China's shadow banking system.Besides,by means of building up a comprehensiveindex system,we finished the qualification of China's financial system's stability.At last,we built the link between the relative scale of China's shadow banking system and the financial system's stability of China,we selected the data of the relative scale of China's shadow banking system and the comprehensive index of China's financial system's stability,added with other control variables,dealing them through stata.We set up a multiple linear regression model by means of dealing with time series data to research on the impact of the different components' relative scale of China's shadow banking system on the stability of China's financial system,and we found the relative scale of China's internal and external shadow banking system have different degrees of influence on the stability of China's financial system,any increase in the relative scale of these two components will both lead to the decrease in China's financial system's stability,but internal shadow banking has greater influence on financial system's stability.In addition,we built another quadratic regression model and found that the overall relative scale scale of China's shadow banking system has a threshold effect on its impact on China's financial system's stability,when the overall relative scale of China's shadow banking system is less than 51.3391%,the bigger the overall relative scale of China's shadow banking system is,the stronger the stability of China's financial system is;but once the overall relative scale of China's shadow banking system beyond 51.3391%,any increase in the overall relative scale of China's shadow banking system will lead to lower stability of China's financial system.As the end part of this article,we gave some policy suggestions on the financial regulation and supervision on China's shadow banking system based on our empirical and theoretical research.