| Since Chinese Reform and Opening-up,a large number of rural-urban Migrants have transferred into cities to make a living,which promoted the fast urbanization of China.However,most of rural-urban Migrants can not get the city Hukou,realize the identity transformation,and also can't enjoy equal to urban residents of social welfare and public services,then China's urbanization has been considered as sort of peri-urbanization.The model of peri-urbanization results in the segmentation of local residents and foreign residents,and also makes a huge number of left-behind women,left-behind children and left-behind old people in Chinese rural areas.Obviously,this model of peri-urbanization is harmful for China's economic development and social harmony and stability.Therefore,how to promote the citizenization of rural-urban migrants has become an important issue in the new century and has been noticed by China's central government seriously.Noticeably,China carried out the development strategy recent ten years,which promoted positively the development of small-sized town and limited the development of big cities,and the policy of land supply was biased toward the central and western regions.At the same time,China's housing prices,especially the eastern,have risen rapidly,however,the eastern is the main migrant destination of rural-urban migrants.In addition,the rate of peri-urbanization did not decrease,but increased with the rising housing prices.Under the above background,considering the special land supply system and the household registration system in China,this paper uses the rising housing prices as the logical starting point,and explores the inner logical relationship among the land Supply,housing prices and the citizenization of rural-urban Migrants in the process of urbanization.Details are as follows.Firstly,this article reviews the classical theory and related literature about migration between urban and rural areas.Secondly,using"natural experiment" of the central land policy adjustment,and employing difference-in-difference method and · difference in difference-propensity score matching(PSM-DID)approach,this paper studies structural differences of rising house prices.Thirdly,Employing fixed effect regression model and Quantile regression model with panel data of 281 cities from 2001 to 2013,and based on the view from land supply of central government and local government behavior,this paper studies reason of the rise in house prices further.Fourthly,based on the view of rural-urban migrants registered in city,using the method of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA)and spatial econometric model with panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2014,this paper analyses the spatial characters of peri-urbanization and the reason why the rate of peri-urbanization rises persistently.Puting the land supply,housing prices and urbanization of rural-urban migrants in the same framework,The sixth chapter employs two stages least square method and uses land supply as instrumental variable of housing prices to study the impact of housing prices on the urbanization of rural-urban migrants further.Finally,Using Chinese household income Project(CHIP)data,this paper studies the impact of rising house prices on household consumption of migrant workers and its mechanism.Besides,we also analysis causes of the appreciation of housing prices and overcome the endogenous with two-stage least squares method.This paper can get the following basic conclusions:(1)The central government has reduced land supply in the eastern cities and increased supply in the middle western areas since 2003?Land use is scarcer in eastern cities,which results house prices growing up relatively faster.Empirical studies show that the biased land policy leads to house prices of the eastern cities rise by at least 6.51%by controlling the level of economic development,population scale,financial convenience,urbanization and other factors;At the same time,using the PSM-DID to estimate the impact of land supply policy on house prices shows that the result is similar with that of DID,which shows the result is robust.This chapter shows that the structural differences of house prices rising is attributed to the difference of land supply.(2)Land leasing area has significant negative impact on housing prices,and with the rising of housing prices,the marginal influence of land leasing area per capita will increase.At the same time,I found that land marginal effect in the eastern is greater than that in the central and western regions,which shows than the central land supply policy biased toward the Midwest results in a shortage of land for the eastern region,then pushes up the housing prices in the eastern.In addition,the higher is the proportion of industrial land,the higher is housing prices,especially for the eastern in China.The results of quantile regression get the same result.This chapter shows that the local government behavior pushes up housing prices further.That is to say,due to the massive expansion of industrial land and appropriate use of residential land,local government behavior is the important reason for rising prices.(3)Our results show that:Chinese population peri-urbanization has significantly positive spatial correlation and clustering characteristics with central-peripheral structure decreasing gradually from the East to the West.Housing prices significantly pushed up the rate of peri-urbanization in local province,which is increased by about 7.70%with housing prices rising for every one percent,but has no significant impact on the surrounding provinces and cities.The rate of peri-urbanization is mainly driven by commodity housing prices and industrial buildings' price.From the spatial-time point,house prices rose gentler in 1999-2003,which has no significant impact on peri-urbanization;while the rapid rise in house prices significantly pushed up the national peri-urbanization during 2004 to 2014,especially in the eastern area.The conclusion is that rising housing prices is not beneficial to the urbanization of rural-urban migrants.(4)Our results show that that the reduction of land supply pushes up housing prices,and then rising housing prices drive up the rate of peri-urbanization,hinder the urbanization of agricultural transferred population.The rate of peri-urbanization would rise about 0.189 4 percentage if housing prices increase 1%.Without controlling the endogenous problem,the impact of housing prices on peri-urbanization will be underestimated significantly.Noticeably,the central government has reduced land supply in the eastern cities and increased land supply in the Midwest relatively since 2003,which is the key to pushing up housing prices and the rate of peri-urbanization in the eastern of China.In addition,we also found that both the development of foreign trade and human capital are beneficial to the decrease of the rate of peri-urbanization.Conversely,the supporting ability of finance and the reform of Hukou system have negative effect.(5)Our results show that the misallocation of land supply is an important reason of the appreciation of housing prices,and rising house prices push up household consumption of migrant workers.It is noteworthy that the growth of consumption is unsustainable.The reasons are as follows:on the one hand,the household living expenditure increases,but their per capita living space and the willingness of living in city decline.On the other hand,they increase total consumption by reducing spending on clothing and household equipment and services.In addition,I did not find migrant family's savings motive for buying a house.The main mechanism affecting the peasant workers' consumption is not the wealth effect,and is likely to be the "cost effect" of the surging house prices and the "substitution effect" from "despair consumption".Research shows that property prices rose is against the urbanization of rural-urban migrants.In a word,the mismatch of China's urban land supply and demand is an important reason why housing prices rise persistently,while rising housing prices dampen the urbanization of rural-urban migrants. |
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