Research On The Risk Evaluation And Regulation Strategy Of Urban Real Estate In China Under The New Normal

As Chinese economy enters into a New Normal state, the real estate market enters into a new stage. New characteristics appear in the main indexes such as the investment speed, transaction and price of the real estate. From the regional level, it can be seen that the real estate stocks are relatively large and the market differentiation increases gradually. The potential risks in the real estate market cannot be ignored. From the aspect of cities, short supply in the first-tier and part of the second-tier cities causes the price increase. While oversupply in the third-tier and fourth-tier cities causes the large stocks, which shows that there is a big risk in the real estate market. Therefore, the real estate market risk should be understood and analyzed objectively. The real estate risks should be valued accurately. The efficient policies for the real estate market should be proposed.All of these have important significance for the economic development,national security and social stability.The dissertation considers the real estate market in Chinese cities as the main object. The combination methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis are studied.The evaluation method of the risks in Chinese real estate market is proposed based on the research thought of risk "identification-analysis-evaluation-responding".The suggestions to control the real estate market are proposed. The risk management method,as the main theory, is utilized to identify the real estate risk in the New Normal and make a quantitative analysis for the degree of influencing factors. The working path of influencing factors is gotten through the empirical research. The evaluation index system for the real estate market risk is set up based on the research of influencing factors and their working path. The evaluation method of risk is proposed and used to evaluate the real estate risk in 35 large and medium-sized cities. The handling method and control thoughts for the risk are set up.Based on the analysis of the policies in short time,the advice of regulation policies for the real estate market in long time are proposed including building the evaluation system of policy, perfecting the market monitoring mechanism and building a long-term development path.The main innovation points of this dissertation are summarized as follows:1. The DEMATEL method is applied to identify influencing factors and their influence relationship of urban real estate risks under the new normal. The 4 dimensions and 26 influencing factors covering inventory risks, price risks, capital risks, and policy environment risks are identified based on the supply and demand theory and weakness theory by the documentary method. And the DEMATEL method is used to analyze the influence degree of 26 factors.2. The SEM is used to study the working path of influencing factors of urban real estate risk,and explain its formation mechanism under the new normal. The generation path and coefficient of the real estate risk are determined by the SEM model based on the results of the questionnaire survey. The direct and indirect influence of price risk,inventory risk, capital risk and environmental risk of policy on the risk consequences is showed, which provide basis for the research of response policy.3. A scientific evaluation index model of the real estate risk is built by using the method of "entropy value-TOPSIS" and the evaluation method of the risks is set up. A fuzzy evaluation index system is established based on the analysis of influencing factors and working paths of risk, which covers 4 second indexes and 19 third indexes. The empirical studies in Shandong Peninsula are carried out.4. The SD method is adopted to assess the effects of risk countermeasures in short time, and the countermeasures for real estate risks in long time are completed. The evaluation model is used to identify the risk in 35 large and medium-sized cities. The countermeasures for real estate risks in short time are proposed based on the risk management and risk prevention. Suggestions for the policy of the real estate market in long time are proposed based on the dynamic simulation analysis of the regulation and control policy of real-estate.