A Study Of Real Estate Credit Risk Based On Risk Transfer Regulation

Since china implemented a housing system reform from Housing material distribution to housing currency conversion in 1998, the real estate market has become china's important influence factors at economic development and social life. At the market in which investors and bank intermediary consist of the main body, if the contract itself imperfect or default cost is very low, Investors will have strong motivation to invest in risk assets through the huge bank lending and this may cause asset price bubbles, Once the bubble burst, investors will commonly choose default mode what will pass risk on to the bank intermediary agencies and cause heavy loss to the banking system. Due to the housing credit accounts for the greater proportion of bank loan balances, therefore, real estate bubble and bubble burst will bring about Enormous impact on the whole economic. In recent years, the real estate investment overheating makes most of our cities of real estate prices have risen sharply, in order to prevent possible real estate bubble, prevent potential credit risk, the country implemented a series of macro-control measures.Based on the history and present situation analyzing, combining theoretical analysis and empirical test unifies, summarize and abstract in theory phenomenon combined, this paper studied the credit risk management of Chinese real estate. This paper firstly analyze the possible existence of breach of contract and risk transfer behavior of investor under various financing conditions by constructing a real estate investor economic behavior model. Secondly Theoretical analysis the role of risk transfer in real estate bubbles, and analyzes the influence degree of credit policy and tax policy factors on real estate equilibrium price and price bubbles. Besides this paper focus on our past taken various real estate control policy, and focuses on analyzing the influence of interest rates, mortgage ratio and taxation policy on of the real estate market in China. Finally, this paper presents some policy Suggestions that may prevent commercial bank credit crisis and control real estate price bubbles in china.This theoretical analysis shows that the risk transfer is the root causes in real estate price bubbles, when investors with bank funds for investment at the level of real estate reward below capital costs, Investors will default to the bank. A co-integration analysis shows that real estate prices, housing credit quota and residents' disposable income exist the long-term equilibrium relation; the influence of residents' disposable income on real estate prices is less than real estate loans, or even less than the influence of real estate development loan, this shows that China's real estate prices have been away from the inhabitants of real purchasing power, showing foam characteristics. Our country economic policy practice effect analysis indicates the credit policy that our government department has taken by has a good effect, but tax policy implementation effect is not good for real estate taxes on. Finally, in order to guard against housing bubble because of estate credit expansion, this paper pertinently put forward a series of measures including adjusting bank credit structure and strengthening the risk management from the perspective of bank credit policy and government tax policy.