Study On The Risk Assessment Of Real Estate Market In The Six Provincial Capital Cities In Central China

Since the reform of housing system in China,the real estate industry has played a very important role in improving the living standard of residents,advancing the process of urbanization and promoting the economic development of our country.However,there are various risks in the rapid development of China’s real estate market,which is not conducive to its healthy development.Because of the unbalanced economic development among regions in China,the risks of real estate market in different regions are also quite different.From the regional perspective,this paper has evaluated the real estate market risks in six capital cities of central China,including Taiyuan City,Zhengzhou City,Hefei City,Wuhan City,Nanchang City and Changsha City,in order to understand the real estate market risk situation more objectively and clearly of each provincial capital city,and has put forward suggestions on how to respond.Based on the theory of real estate market fragility and the theory of real estate market supply and demand,this paper had identified some estate risks by referring to the research results of real estate market risk influencing factors and real estate market risk evaluation method,which include the environmental risk of real estate,policy risk of real estate,capital risk of real estate,stock risk of real estate and price risk of real estate,and analyzes the related influencing factors.On this basis,this paper has take the real estate market risk type as the frame,constructed the real estate market risk evaluation index system which contains 21 indexes,and carried on the comparative analysis to the real estate market risk situation of the six provincial capital cities in central China reflected by the index,and has found out the individual risk problem of each provincial capital city.Then,according to entropy method,fuzzy matter element analysis and TOPSIS method,the relative risk of real estate market in the six provincial capital cities in central China in 2015-2017 was ranked.And it was found that that the real estate market risk in Taiyuan City in 2015 is the biggest,and the real estate market risk in Hefei City in 2016 to 2017 is the biggest,and the real estate market risk in Changsha City is the smallest in three years.The introduction of the obstacle model reveals that there are common risks in the public service facilities,land policies,mortgage policies,debt status of real estate development enterprises,real estate development enterprises’ investment status,per capita inventory,and inventory increment in the six provincial capital cities in central China.In view of the common risks in the six provincial capital cities in central China in 2015-2017,this paper has proposed suggestions which include promoting the construction of public service facilities,improving land supply policies,improving differentiated real estate credit policies,encouraging real estate development enterprises to raise funds reasonably,and using multiple means to resolve real estate inventory,etc.And then,according to the basic situation and personality risk of the six provincial capital cities in central China,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to deal with them respectively: Taiyuan City should innovate the motive force of economic development,improve the environmental quality,and actively implement the policy of introducing talents.Zhengzhou City should devote itself to increasing the employment opportunities of the population,improving the income level of the residents,improving the carrying capacity of the urban environment and improving the quality of life of the residents,so as to ensure the basic housing needs of the residents.Hefei City should make use of its industrial advantages to promote the stable development of economy,gradually get rid of the dependence on land finance,and reasonably control the price and scale of land transfer.Wuhan City should strengthen the construction of public service supporting facilities,adjust and control the price of land transfer,strictly implement the policy of differentiated real estate credit,perfect the housing rental market and retain talents.Nanchang City should rely on its location advantages and industrial advantages to provide innovative impetus for economic development,provide sufficient financial support for the healthy development of the real estate market,and at the same time ensure the basic medical needs of residents.Changsha City should strengthen the construction of infrastructure and public service supporting facilities according to the actual situation of its rapid population growth,strengthen the supervision of the capital operation of real estate development enterprises,and control the scale of land transfer at the same time.Through a variety of means to resolve the real estate inventory risk.The real estate market risk evaluation index system constructed in this paper mainly uses relative indexes,which can reflect the urban real estate market risk systematically and objectively.Then through the index comparison and analysis of the real estate market risk status of each city and the comprehensive evaluation of the real estate market risk,this paper has found out the real estate market individual risk and common risk problems in the six provincial capital cities in central China,and has put forward the corresponding suggestions.This kind of research idea has certain rationality and innovation.