Efficiency Evaluation,Prediction And Warning Research Of China’s Telecommunications Industry

Since half year of 2008, with global financial crisis’s continuing spread and in-depth development, all the countries are frequently making macroeconomic policies control measures. The global economic situation is changing rapidly,and China’s macroeconomic trend is showing great volatility and uncertainty as well. In this new situation, to strengthen economic monitoring and warning and build scientific economic warning system are very important for enhancing our government’s capability of decision-making, correctly grasping the trend of economic operation,detecting tendentious early problems, maintaining economic security,promoting steady and rapid growth of economic and social development. The development of China’s telecommunications industry has several decades of history,the evaluation, prediction and warning of telecommunications industry in the past is the basis of making telecommunications policy which is in line with our national conditions.Economic forecasts is to reveal the objective laws of economic development process, to analyze scientifically the links as well as the mechanisms among various economic phenomena, and to point out the possible ways and the results of various economic phenomenon and the economic development process in the future.Economic forecast is to apply prediction theory and method in the economic field to explore the future development of economic phenomena.This paper firstly makes an empirical analysis of China’s telecommunication industry efficiency with data envelopment analysis. Also with theory of linear programming, data envelopment analysis, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis and study of China’s telecommunications industry efficiency in terms of static efficiency, dynamic efficiency, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, pure technical efficiency and gets the findings of telecommunication industry efficiency in different years and geographic parts.Secondly, with ARIMA model, VAR model and time series prediction method,this paper build a predict model of China’s telecom business income and total business volume, which has a strong reference for the prediction of telecom economic. Also this paper from the theoretical aspect provides econometric model of telecom business revenue forecasts, which provides state-owned assets management department and collaborative telecommunications regulatory authorities with theoretical basis to make telecommunications regulatory policy.Thirdly, based on the economic sentiment indicator system of relevant industries from domestic and foreign countries, combined with the characteristics of China’s telecommunications industry, this paper establishes telecommunications industry sentiment monitoring indicator system in line with China’s telecommunications reality.With this system, this paper makes an analysis and prediction for telecommunication industry, and the results fit the reality and can effectively provide decision-making reference and data support for government departments. At last, this paper come up with China’s telecommunication industry regulatory policy and suggestions based on the results,and provides decision-making reference and data support for the telecom regulatory departments.Finally, The paper establishes an index system for evaluating China’s regional telecommunication industry development. The index system includes 12 indicators,covering the following two aspects. After given the index system an objective weight by the entropy method, we evaluated the quality of China’s regional telecommunication industry. The results show that the geographical distribution in a decreasing manner from the East, Midlands to the West of China.