The Real Estate Warning Study Based On Multivariable Grey Prediction

With the development of the national economy,the real estate has become an important part to stimulate the economic growth of our country because of its high industrial correlation and strong drive.In recent years,the real estate market has developed rapidly,but there have also been many problems,such as:the price growth of the real estate market is too fast,the vacancy of housing is high,and the contradiction between housing supply and demand is outstanding.In order to promote the sustained and stable development of the real estate market and avoid the severe fluctuation of the real estate market,we need to establish a scientific and practical early warning system for the grey model of the real estate market.By comparing the five early warning methods,such as black warning,gray warning,red warning,green early warning and white warning,the advantage of grey warning method is highlighted,and it is identified as the early warning method in this paper.The grey system of the real estate market contains many variables,and the variables are interrelated.In this paper,we use multivariable grey model to find system index data sequence,and then use principal component analysis to reduce multiple attributes.Based on reduction,we use eigenvalues and eigenvectors to determine weights,and establish a multivariable grey prediction model.Through the comparative analysis of the relative error between the grey metabolism model and the adjusted grey model,we get the error of the adjusted grey metabolism model is smaller,and the prediction result is more accurate and valuable.And based on the effective prediction of the comprehensive early-warning degree of real estate,the future trend is put forward.This article collected the relevant data of China's real estate from 2001 to 2016,and set out from the basic elements of early warning,through the analysis of three aspects to determine the early warning indicators.First,it is the index of the stability of the real estate market and the ability of social and economic adjustment,so that the relativity of the two is considered,and the relevance of the two is avoided.Second,it is to reflect the development of real estate structure of the real estate industry,to examine whether the internal relations are reasonable and whether the internal structure is stable.Third,it is an index reflecting the supply-demand relationship of the real estate market,because supply and demand probem has become a major problem of the real estate industry,so as to reflect whether there is any contradiction in the real estate industry.Finally,to usethe gray warning model standardizes the earlywarning index of the real estate market in our country.The principal components analysis method is used to simplify the multiple indicators.Based on the simplified index,the eigenvalues and eigenvectors determine the weight and establish the multivariate gray prediction model to calculate the precaution degree,and predict the warning value in the next two years by using the gray model of self-adjusting metabolism proposed in this paper.Through the definition rules of the precautionary interval,it is concluded that the real estate market in our country will turn cold trend.