Research On Comprehensive Evaluation And Early Warning Model Of Civil Aircraft Service Difficulty

Research on comprehensive evaluation and prediction pre-warning model of civil aircraft Service Difficulty is an important topic in the field of civil aviation maintenance and security. The existing Service Difficulty Report (SDR) system is about collection, analysis and evaluation of the existing data of Service Difficulty, but it's without the ability of forecasting and early warning on future status of Service Difficulty. Therefore, it's urgency need to develop a prediction and early warning system about civilian aircraft Service difficulty for civilian aircraft fault trend analysis, assessment, forecasting, pre-warning and information-sharing, so as to enhance the safe operation of civilian aircraft.Firstly, through the analysis of the relevant principles of safety engineering, combined the set principles and the construction process of safety evaluation index system, the safety evaluation index system based on hierarchical structure is established.Second, on the basis of the research and analysis of qualitative and quantitative evaluation method of system security, fuzzy comprehensive hierarchical analysis and evaluation method is proposed. On this basis, the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm and model is proposed. And the comprehensive evaluation algorithm and model are validated with a case study.Then, by analyzing of the prediction and prevention of accidents, combined the property of randomness, uncertainty and poverty information about civil aircraft mechanical fault occurred, grey forecasting methods is proposed, and the grey prediction GM(1,1) model is established. And the prediction model is explained in detail with a case study. By studying the risks early warning theory and early warning mechanism, civil aircraft service difficulty early warning methods and index system is proposed, and the early warning structure and early warning model is established.Finally, the prediction and early warning system of civil aircraft Service Difficulty is developed successfully. The system contains many modules, such as the Service Difficulty early warning module, Service Difficulty forecasting module, the report fault rate forecasting module.