| As a focus of attention of academics and politics,the RMB exchange rate changes have profound influence on global trade,investment and economic development from country to country.In the background of the current global imbalances and huge Sino-US trade surplus,a group of scholars represented by Krugman even take the undervalued yuan as a key cause of global imbalances,and calls for the appreciation of the RMB is extremely high after the 2008 financial crisis(Krugman,2010;Bergsten,2010).According to the bank for international settlements(BIS),the appreciation range of RMB nominal and real effective exchange rate reached 64.31% and 64.31% respectively from 1994 to 2012.Among them,on July 21,2005,China began to implement managed floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies which was based on market supply and demand.According to a reasonable and balanced level,the exchange rate of RMB rose by 2% against the dollar that day.By 2012,the appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate against the dollar was close to 31%.In order to investigate the influence of the RMB exchange rate change on Chinese manufacturing exporting enterprises comprehensively and systematically,this paper study that problem from four aspects,which includes the productivity of exporting enterprises,enterprises' exporting dynamics,the exporting behavior of multi-product enterprises and the product quality of exporting enterprises respectively.In addition,this article match the China's industrial enterprise data and the customs data by 2007 for the first time,and we measure the RMB real effective exchange rate index at the enterprise level,so we can investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on enterprises' exporting behavior more accurately.And as an expand analysis,based on the angle of export product quality and multi-product enterprises respectively,this paper introduces the survival analysis model for the first time to investigate the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on enterprises' exporting duration,which can enrich and expand the research of this kind of literature view(the literature of the RMB exchange rate changes and China's export enterprises).There are eight chapters in this paper.The first chapter is our introduction,which consists of the research background,the purpose of this article,our research ideas and methods,and our innovation points.The second chapter is literature review,reviews and teases the exchange rate changes and trade,the dynamic effect of exchange rate changes on enterprises.The third chapter is the RMB exchange rate: system evolution and the index quantification,first of all,we review the evolution path of the Chinese RMB exchange rate system and the RMB exchange rate changes since the reform and opening up of China,and then we introduce the measurement of the trade-weighted RMB real effective exchange rate index on enterprise level.As the core chapters of this article,the main contents of fourth chapter to the seventh chapter are: the fourth chapter inspects the influence of RMB exchange rate on the export enterprises' productivity,based on the firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data from 2000 to 2007,this chapter tries to investigate the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese manufacturing enterprises' productivity.The fifth chapter investigates the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese industrial enterprises' exporting behavior comprehensively and systematically,first,we build a theory model of exchange rate changes and enterprises' exporting behavior,whose influence is decomposed into intensive boundary and expanding boundary,and then based on the firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data from 2000 to 2007,this chapter investigates the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese manufacturing firms' export activity.Finally,we make an extended analysis,that is,we investigate the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the duration of enterprises to export.Chapter 6 analyzes the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese multi-product firms' export activity,and we put forward three theoretical hypotheses about exchange rate and multi-product firms' export activity firstly,and then,based on the firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data from 2000 to 2007,this chapter investigates the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese multi-product firms' export activity.Finally,we make an extended analysis,that is,we investigate the different relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the duration of the core products and non-core products in multi-product firms.The seventh chapter investigates the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese manufacturing enterprises' product quality.It may be the first paper to take export product quality and the RMB exchange rate changes into a unified analysis framework.This chapter firstly estimates the trade-weighted RMB real effective exchange rate index and product quality index in the enterprise level,and then investigates the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on Chinese manufacturing enterprises' product quality.Chapter eight summarizes this paper,which includes the main conclusions,policy implications and our research directions for the future.Through the above theoretical and empirical analysis,we can get the following conclusions:1.RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation has a positive net effect through capital and labor elements allocation effect,companies selection effect,scale economy effect and human capital enhancement effect on the manufacturing enterprises' productivity,and the conclusion remains robust after the use of several tools to solve problems of endogenous variables.The effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on enterprises' productivity are significantly different among firms with different characteristics,including whether firms export or not,different mode of trade,different technology level and different ownership of enterprises.The enterprises' financing ability is one factor that restricts the effect of RMB exchange rate on enterprises' productivity,and the stronger of the enterprises' financing ability,the greater the positive impact of RMB exchange rate on firms' productivity.2.The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on Chinese manufacturing firms' export decision-making,export prices,export quantity and export value,and from the point of standardized coefficient,it's impact on the export quantity,export price and export value is bigger than firms' export decision-making,this shows that the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on the export enterprises shows more in the intensive margin,but not the expand margin.Inside the intensive border,enterprises react to the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation to its exports mainly by adjusting the export quantity.The effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on firms' export activity are significantly different among the firms with different characteristics,including different productivity levels,different firm size,different financing constraints,different ownership of export enterprises and different ways of trade.The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate shortened the duration of the enterprises to export.3.The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on Chinese multi-product firms' export prices and export quantity,and the effects are significantly different among firms with different productivity levels and the sequence in the product ladder of multi-product firms.Also,the conclusion remains robust after using several tools to solve problems of endogenous variables.The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate shortens the duration of the non-core products to export,but extends the duration of the core products to export.RMB real exchange rate appreciation narrows multi-product firms' export scope(number of export products),but improves the concentration degree of multi-product firms' export products.This paper confirms that the appreciation of the RMB make the enterprise focus on exporting core products,and it is beneficial to promote the competitiveness of the Chinese export firms in the long run.4.RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation has a positive net effect on manufacturing firms' product quality,and the effects are significantly different among firms with different characteristics,including different productivity levels,different financing constraints,different ownership of export enterprises and different ways of trade.Also,the conclusion remains robust after using several tools to solve problems of endogenous variables.Through the decomposition of export trade,we find that the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the product quality improvement for the new enterprises,but it is not conducive to exiting enterprises;The appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the quality improvement of the new products,but it is not conducive to exiting products,and it has a positive influence on the existing enterprises' quality improvement;In addition,compared with domestic enterprises,foreign-funded enterprises' speed to improve the product quality is faster.The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate shortens the duration of the low product quality enterprises to export,but extends the duration of the high product quality enterprises to export.This paper confirms that the appreciation of the RMB is beneficial to improve enterprises' product quality from the micro level,and it also has important policy implications for China to implement the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism which can finally promote our foreign trade product structure upgrading. |
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