The Real Exchange Rate Changes On China's Import And Export Of Goods Affect The Analysis

The sustainable and steady trade development helps to ensure external equilibrium and economic growth. As an important economic lever, exchange rate is one of vital factors influencing trade development of a country or region. With the entrance of WTO and opening level improving, the change of RMB exchange rate can influence the foreign trade of China or even the world, so it is more and more attentioned by all circles. In view of this, the objective of this paper is to explore into the economic mechanism of the change of RMB exchange rate influencing the foreign trade, and explore the ascending of real exchange rate from the foreign trade side at present.On the basis of theory analyses, the paper proceeds with the research from three aspects.Taking research on our country's trade and the change of exchange rate policy since 1984, we discover that at different stage, foreign trade has different features as the ascending and descending of real exchange rate. By empirical analysis, we calculate the flexibility of import and export by adding policy variables into the model. The results show that ML condition doesn't available in China and real effective exchange rate has little effects on import. At short-term, import is mainly affected by policy fact, and export is mainly affected by policy and GDP.In order to get deep information about the relation between real exchange rate and foreign trade, we measure the changing of foreign trade as the changing of exchange rate. We calculate the import and export flexibility of labor-intensive commodities and capital-intensive commodities separately, and find the effect of real effective exchange rate on labor-intensive commodities is bigger than capital-intensive commodities. Also, it shows both the import demand flexibility is small. Empirical analysis results prove that the ascending of real effective exchange rate is good for export structure upgrade, but its role on import structure is disappointing. In sensitivity analysis, we notify real exchange rate has different effects on different SITC commodities which are specified by International Trade Standard. In short-term, because of different exchange rate time-lag, there are various effects on SITC commodities.Analyzing good and bad effects brought by the ascending trend of RMB exchange rate. Preceding discussion and empirical analyses prove that RMB exchange rate transformation should be carried into execution slowly and with caution in order to escaping the disaster of big fluctuation of exchange rate. In another aspect, enhancing enterprises' competitiveness and give them appropriate guidance. And exchange rate policy not only build on gross data analyzes of trade, but also build on analyzes to different commodities, by doing this, we can reduce the faintness of adjustment to exchange rate policy.