A Study Of Investment Decision On Distributed Wind Power Project Under Uncertainty

The current stage,China is in rapid economic growth in the development of China's market economy increasingly strong demand for energy,how to solve the conflict of supply and demand,optimize energy structure and energy crisis,pollution control,energy conservation and emissions reduction,environmental protection,handle the relationship between the development and the environment,is facing a challenge in China.China is rich in wind resources,develop clean energy sources like wind power is the only way for the future energy supply.Distributed wind power with power generation characteristics of flexible,environment friendly is get more and more attention,the domestic wind power equipment and project investment is ascendant.Increasing wind power project investment,is beneficial to promoting local economic growth,expanding employment,development in areas of the third industry and promote regional sustainable development of the society.Increasing wind power project investment,can effectively drive the development of equipment manufacturing and other related industries,promote the adjustment of industrial structure,promote the economic growth mode transformation.Increasing wind power project investment,embodies the rational allocation of resources in China,which saves petrochemical resources,improve the energy structure,meet the increasing demand for energy,alleviate the energy crisis of the deteriorating.In view of this,the paper features,fully consider the wind power development and investment in wind power investment decision-making and management policy research.Based on analyzing the current situation of the development of China's wind power,the investment structure analysis of China's wind power market.Through the modeling methods,explore the investment of the difficulties and barriers.Based on the quantitative methods to analyze the wind power enterprise investment scale and the relationship between the corporate performance.Using the real option theory,the establishment of distributed wind power projects,the optimal investment timing and scale decision option game model,analysis of contribution Mao Yi threshold and its accessibility.Using the sensitivity analysis was carried out on the investment decision.And further,in the enterprise the researchers introduced wind power grid enterprise,analysis of the optimal decision;Depict the capacity of wind power enterprises on investment in wind power investment choices,"subsidies" strategy is put forward.And revelation to the investment policy of wind power development is discussed in this paper.These studies,to explore the wind power investment law,reduce the uncertainty in wind power investment,to promote wind power investment decision-making,enhance the enthusiasm of wind power investment,promote the rapid development of China's wind power industry,has important practical significance.Paper summary the main work and conclusions are as follows:(1)based on the quantitative methods to analyze the wind power enterprise investment scale and the relationship between the corporate performance,using panel data model about fixed effects,and the random effects to the corresponding empirical study.And use half parameter panel data model,to verify the conclusions of the robustness of the linear panel data model.The result shows that in the electric power enterprise,investment scale has significant positive effect on enterprise performance.And based on the results of the semiparametric panel regression model shows that the relationship between nonlinear relationship does not exist,part of nonparametric regression result shows that the fitting line present a linear form,and close to investment scale in the linear regression coefficient.This suggests that as a option function of investment in fixed assets,the scale of investment in wind power of China's electric power enterprise performance has a significant role,although the investment scale coefficient estimate is relatively small.But in the marketization process gradually deepening economic circumstances,the investment scale of enterprise performance promotion role in the future will increase.(2)using the real option theory,under the precondition of marginal profit growth of uncertainty,the establishment of a distributed wind power projects,the optimal investment timing and scale decision-making of option game model.First of all assess the investment benefits and costs of wind power project,build the optimal investment scale and value functions;And then the real option value assessment delay investment,solution of optimal investment scale,and analyze the contribution Mao Yi threshold and its accessibility.Finally,through concrete examples validate and sensitivity analysis.The results show that the distributed wind power projects with a time limit for investment,contribution Mao Yi critical value and optimal investment scale,and the expected waiting time and contribution Mao Yi expected growth rate and the rate of change are related,and delaying investment option value and the correlation between two differences,and the significance of different also;Under certain conditions and contributions Mao Yi fluctuation range,delay investment option value and the corresponding expected waiting time of wind electricity for private use or the increase of initial contribution Mao Yi increase and decrease respectively,but the wind power for the optimal investment ratio,and initial contribution Mao Yi on investment threshold and no effect;The optimal investment decision-making needs to consider at the same time policymakers contribution Mao Yi critical value and optimal investment scale.(3)it is considering wind power in terms of stability and controllability of the wind power in power and online by grid enterprises for investment in wind power brought by the resistance of the influence of earnings forecasts.Therefore,at the beginning of wind power enterprises in investment,need to design a set of disperse investment risk management mechanism to mitigate conflicts of interests between wind power and power grid.Paper from the analysis of the cost of wind power and power grid enterprises,respectively analysis of wind power enterprises and power grid companies both in the ideal situation and real situation of optimal decision;And introduce risk measure coefficient to measure the wind power enterprise risk attitude in the face of wind power investment risk,and portrays the wind power enterprises on investment in wind power investment capacity choice;By comparing the real scene wind power capacity of enterprises investment and the gap between ideal scenario,"subsidies" strategy is put forward,namely,to stimulate the wind power grid enterprise investment and efforts to improve the quality of wind power,thereby reducing the risk of power grid to absorb wind power that may be encountered with,will be part of the future returns sell electricity share profit with wind power enterprise.This strategy can reconcile contradiction between wind power and power grid enterprise,to the interests of compatible effect.