Research On Investment Decision Of Group A Offshore Wind Power Project Based On Real Options

Wind energy is a renewable energy source.Under the background of China's overall energy shortage and greenhouse gas emission constraints,wind energy has the most prospects for development and utilization and the most mature technologies.Since China has formulated the Renewable Energy Law,it has promoted the rapid development of the wind power industry.Land-based high-quality wind energy has been basically exploited.There are abundant offshore wind energy resources.The offshore wind energy has large single-unit production capacity and high utilization hours,which have become new development hot spots.However,China's offshore wind power projects have just started,with large initial investment,high technical requirements,and difficult profitability.These factors have constrained the development of offshore wind power.Therefore,under the current conditions,there are many uncertainties in offshore wind power projects.The traditional decision-making methods do not fully consider the impact of uncertainties on the future project returns,and are likely to cause mistakes in decision-making,difficulty increased in decision making.The real option analysis method can effectively solve the investment decision problem under high risk.This paper aims at the problems in the decision-making of the first offshore wind power project,the Dongtai Offshore Wind Power Project,of Group A,and establishes a basic theory and method of real option.The investment decision-making method system of offshore wind power projects with strong operability will provide theoretical support for the timely selection of investment opportunities for projects and whether to make follow-up investment and development.This article first analyzes the factors influencing the decision-making of offshore wind power projects.Affected by policies,economics,technology,and environmental factors,the decision-making indicators such as power generation revenue and investment of offshore wind power projects are uncertain.Secondly,the limitations of traditional decision-making methods in offshore wind power and the applicability of real options are analyzed,and the types of options for offshore wind power project investment decisions are identified.Once again,the learning curve theory is used to predict the change trend of investment cost of offshore wind power in China.The learning rate of investment cost of onshore wind power in China and the learning rate of investment cost of offshore wind power in Germany are ca culated respectively.The learning rate of investment cost of onshore wind power in China is used as the calculation basis for offshore wind power investment costs after the comparative analysis.Finally,according to the decision-making difficulties faced by the Group A Dongtai offshore wind power project,the real option BS method is used to calculate the deferred option value of the year,and the optimal investment timing(delay option)of the Dongtai offshore wind power project is obtained,and the sensitivity is analyzed.The Binary Tree method of real options is used to calculate the value of expansion options for Dongtai offshore wind power projects.A sensitivity analysis is also carried out.The basis for the follow-up investment opportunities(expanding options)of the Dongtai offshore wind power project is obtained,and the on-grid tariff at the subsequent break-even point is calculated,provides a basis for the follow-up investment decision-making.