Research On Wind Power Investment Decision-making Strategy Based On Real Options Theory

Wind energy is the most promising energy, whose technology is mature,so the governments of all countries implement strong policies to promote the rapid development of wind power industry. But comparing to conventional energy, due to its large initial investment and high electricity price level, wind power industry lacks of competitiveness.Therefore, in the current environment,wind power industry still need government subsidies policy to support its development. However,the formulation and implementation of government subsidy policy exist many uncertainties,increasing the difficulty for the wind power investors to select the best investment opportunity.Therefore, considering various uncertain factors,carrying on the reasonable expectations of future government subsidies policy,and combing with proper investment decision-making tool to determine the optimal investment time,can improve investment benefit of the wind power project, and plays a vital role in promoting the wind power project investment.Firstly, this paper expounds the background and significance of this research, analyzes the present research situation of the domestic and foreign about real options, and determines the research content and technical route; secondly, this paper elaborates the investment theory, investment decision method, two binomial tree pricing model and learning curve theory, establishing the theory basis for the following investment decision model;and then, considering the cost of wind power,thermal power generation cost, government subsidies, the price of carbon emissions,this paper makes a evaluation for the direction of wind power policy.And uses data of nearly 2 years to make empirical Analysis, the results show that the current government investment in wind power industry will suffer a loss.Therefore,by setting different policy subsidy coefficient,this paper gets the optimal investment time under different subsidy coefficient.Finally, basing on the analysis of the government subsidy policy, from the angle of investors,we introduced in the variable of investing subsidy policy which was describing by Poisson motion to discuss investment strategy under politic uncertainty. All the simulation and calculation was done by Matlab software.The results shows that under the uncertain investment policy, the investment subsidies affect investment decisions of the investors.