Empirical Research On The Stock Of Human Capital In China And Its Influence On Economic Growth

With the decelerated economic growth in China in recent years,the previous economic growth pattern,which was dependent on the development of labor-intensive industries,as well as material capital and labor input,has been confronted with difficulties in economic transition.The difficulties include a series of questions,such as Lewis Turning-Point,decreasing scale of capital input,increasing labor cost,vanishing demographic dividend,and resource and environment restriction,etc.It is suggested by the research findings achieved by many economists since the 1960 s that human capital is exactly the key to the settlement of all the above questions.As it is known to us all,human capital is an important factor of production,and increasing the input in human capital will undoubtedly raise the output.Meanwhile,human capital is also a special factor of production,because it will act on material capital and other factors of production through its efficiency,and enhance its marginal yield and eliminate the decreasing trend of the marginal income ratio,through which,the economic growth rate can be raised.During the promotion of knowledge and the technological level,human capital can facilitate the adjustment of industrial structure more effectively,through which,urban-rural dualistic economy can be improved,and regional economic disparities can be minimized,which are of great significance to the economic transition and even upgrade of a country(region).This paper is focused on the empirical research of the stock of human capital in China and its influence on economic growth.After consulting the statistical yearbooks and data of the previous years,the author adopted software SPSS24.0 and Eviews8.0 in the empirical analysis and test,and specifically answered the following questions.Firstly,among the various methods of estimating human capital,which one is the most applicable to the national situation of China? Secondly,what changes has the increase of the human capital stock witnessed after the reform and opening-up in China? Thirdly,how have material capital,labor input and human capital driven the economic growth of China? How's the contribution of the various production factors to the economic growth in China? Fourthly,how to establish the evaluation index system of human capital and economic system in China? What variables are included in this index system? Do regional disparities exist in the provincial human capital stock and economic development level in China? Fifthly,how's the development trend of the regional human capital system and economic system,and the development trend of the various factors in the system? Are they coordinated? Are they mutually compatible? This paper is divided into seven chapters in total.Please see the concrete content of each chapter below:Chapter 1 mainly includes the background and significance of the research.Certain concepts,such as capital,human capital and human capital investment that are studied in this research,are defined and analyzed.Afterwards,the logical frame,research content,methods and data sources of this research are briefly introduced.Chapter 2 briefly introduces the theoretical foundation of this research,which includes the trains of thought and theoretical reviews advocated by classical economists,neoclassical economists and modern economists on human capital.It also includes reviews of the early economic growth models and economic growth models that include the variable of human capital;different methods of measuring human capital,including the methods of future income,accumulative cost,education index and multiple indexes;four critical elements of the measurement of the stock of material capital.Chapter 3 includes the empirical analysis of the stock of human capital after the reform and opening-up in China.Based on the theoretical research,the model of human capital stock measurement is established.Furthermore,this model is adopted to analyze the dynamic changes of the stock of human capital in China between 1978 and 2015.It is suggested by the research findings that the total human capital stock and the per capita stock demonstrate the trend of continuous increase in China between 1978 and 2015,and the growth rate of the total human capital stock is slightly higher than that of the per capita stock.In addition,the ratio of human capital output demonstrates a “U”-shape trend with a rise followed by a decline.Among the various kinds of human capital stock,human capital stock on education and hygiene occupies the largest proportion,followed by human capital stock on scientific research and migration,and human capital stock on training occupies the smallest proportion.This suggests that education,hygiene and health are the primary channel of accumulating human capital in China.Chapter 4 mainly adopts the methods of principal component analysis and clustering analysis in the empirical analysis of the human capital evaluation system of China.It is suggested by the research findings that the indexes of education,hygiene and scientific research exert significant influence on the development of human capital in China.This suggests that education,hygiene and scientific research are the main channels of the accumulation of human capital in China.Chapter 5 mainly analyzes GDP,quantity of employment and material capital stock of China after the reform and opening-up.Furthermore,the model of the influence of human capital stock on economic growth is established,and the rate of contribution of material capital,human capital and labor input to the economic growth of China is empirically tested.It is suggested by the research findings that with the economic development in China,the growth rate of the quantity of employment has continuously been decreasing,and demographic dividend has gradually been vanishing.It is also demonstrated that during the economic development of China,the contribution rate of material capital to the economic growth is much higher than the contribution rate of human capital and labor input,which suggests that the economic development of China primarily depends on the driving force of material capital investment,and that the industrial economic development of China has gradually been transforming from the labor-intensive type to the capital and technology-intensive type.Chapter 6 establishes a coupling degree model of human capital system and economic system,and adopts this model to analyze whether the provincial human capital stock can achieve coordinated development with the economic development of China between 2008 and 2014,and whether they are mutually compatible.It is suggested by the research findings that the human capital stock and economic development level of the eastern China are much higher than the central and western China.Meanwhile,the coupling degree of the two systems---human capital and economy is also the same case in the eastern China.Beijing,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Guangdong and Zhejiang are regions with the highest level of human capital development,and the average coupling degree of these regions in human capital and economy is also the highest.The coupling degree of human capital and economy is the lowest in Guizhou,Gansu and Qinghai.Chapter 7 summarizes the research findings of the above chapters.The author proposes the following countermeasures of facilitating the economic development and the increase of human capital in China: establish and perfect three-dimensional and multi-layer education systems that can be connected;intensify elementary education reform and balance the regional development of elementary education;adjust the structure of higher education and energetically develop vocational education;promote industry-university-research integrated development in colleges and universities;encourage colleges,universities and enterprises to introduce overseas high-level talents;encourage the diversification of the subject of education investment;perfect medical health service system;further minimize the gap between the urban and rural areas in medical treatment;popularize extensive fitness programs;establish national human capital calculating system;driving the re-development of the human capital of low-age seniors;establish and perfect a long-acting incentive mechanism on enterprises' scientific and technological innovation;reinforce the cultivation of talents on science and technology,and enhance the level of scientific and technical personnel;intensify the reform of the household registration system,and encourage the labor flow;eliminate employment discrimination and create an impartial employment environment.