Research On The Endogenous Nature Of Chinese Public Debt Risk And Its Management

After the 2008 economic crisis,the sovereign debt problem has become the main obstacle to the world economic recovery.European debt crisis,the debt crisis in the Middle East,the u.s..However,despite the same external impact of the economic crisis,the debt crisis has only occurred in some countries.Based on this phenomenon,this paper puts forward the endogenous debt risk analysis framework,trying to find the cause of the intrinsic mechanism between the formation of endogenous factors of a country and the country's debt crisis,and to test the effectiveness of the analysis framework,and analysis of its application in our country on the debt risk.First of all,this article makes a brief introduction to the domestic and international economic background,the risk from five aspects of theory and research of foreign public debt,Latin American debt crisis in 1980s,the European debt crisis,DSGE model and China's public debt,reviews the related literature.Then the research methods and research ideas are described,and the difficulties and possible innovations are summarized.These contents are mainly embodied in the first chapter.Secondly,on the basis of refining of literatures and summarized,put forward the risk bond endogeneity hypothesis,namely the public debt crisis appears to have both external factors and internal factors,and the root of public debt endogenous risk is excessive deficit preference and new deficits for the contribution to economic growth continues to decline,both of which include non production spending and expansion,including the production of public expenditure to promote economic growth in the marginal decline.Then,we introduce a debt crisis model to describe the mechanism of endogenous debt risk.Then,from the theoretical point of view,the paper analyzes the causes of the three debt risk endogenous factors,such as the expansion of the deficit preference,the decline in the proportion of financial investment and the decline of the elasticity of public capital output.These contents are mainly embodied in the second chapter.Third,this paper analyzes the debt crisis in Latin America in 1980s and the European crisis in 2009 from the perspective of endogeneity.Then the two crises were compared.The comparison results showed that the political instability and "welfare catch up" is the two time before the crisis resulted from both the government deficit preference expansion,"welfare corruption is catching up with two times before the crisis,the common cause of public investment and the decline in the proportion of government investment in public capital output elasticity decreased.These contents are mainly embodied in the third chapter.Fourth,this paper makes a study of a medium scale DSGE model specific effects on debt endogenous risk mechanism and macro effect,research suggests that the government's deficit preference increases,the marginal output elasticity of public capital is lower,the greater the risk of debt.The proportion of financial investment and debt risk is not a simple linear,but a "U" type of change,thus the original hypothesis was falsified.These contents are mainly embodied in the fourth chapter.Fifth,the public debt in the background of our country's elaboration,then from the point of view on China's internal debt risk analysis to estimate China's real government deficit ratio and debt ratio,and financial investment ratio of the two caliber and public capital marginal output elasticity,and the endogenous reasons the factors are analyzed.And from the endogenous perspective,the European and Latin American debt crisis and China's debt risk are analyzed,the causes of endogenous risk factors,China and Latin American countries before the debt crisis in Greece and Europe in common,namely the capital marginal output elasticity of public deficits and corrupt political preference the factors leading to the decline.These contents are mainly embodied in the fifth and the sixth chapters.Finally,the article summarizes the full text.Describes the Enlightenment of Latin American countries and European countries debt risk endogenous factors on the reasons of China's debt risk,and according to the specific situation of China's debt risk,the relevant suggestions are put forward from the perspective of governance endogenous debt risk.