The Influence Of Exports On Economic Growth

Under the conditions that intermediate goods trade,the gross volume of exports cann't represent the real earning from exports for one country.The view that based on the trade in value added to unfold research of the influence of exports on economic growth is more in line with the reality of intra-product trade.Through calculating the exports in value added by dimension of total volume,industrial volume and bilateral countries,this paper empirically studied the influence of exports on economic growth under the reality of intra-product period.Based on the database of WIOD,we selected countries which are traped in “Middle Income Trap”,developed countries,Korea and China as sample countries.The research dimensions are based on classical economic growth theory and new economic growth theory respectively.The empirical study will divide into four parts: the influence of exports in value added on GDP;the influence of exports in value added on TFP;the influence of exports in value added by different industries on TFP;the influence of exports in value added by different areas on TFP.The conclusion is as follows:As to the countries which are trapped into “Middle Income Trap”,the exports in value added enhanced the growth of GDP and the technology progress.But compared with the TFP,GDP will benefit from the exports in value added more.Further more study on the influence of exports in value added by different industries on TFP shows that as the limited technology standard in middle income countries,The middle and high tech industries are most conducive to technological progress.Based on the mechanism of the technology diffusion and reverse R&D,the technology standard inserted into the middle and high tech commodities are most appropriate to the middle income countries.Another study view that the influence of exports in value addede by different areas on TFP shows that the TFP of middle income countries will benefit from the exports in value added which output on developing countries most.Because of the global value chain has transfered the international product system to developing countries,so the high-tech intermediate goods exported to developing countries will prompt the technology progress of middle income countries.As to developed countries,the exports in value added enhanced the growth of GDP and the TFP,but the coefficient of TFP are far greater than the coefficient of GDP,So the mechanism of the influence of exports in value added on economic growth will more based on the new economic growth theory of the view of technology progress,which explain the reason why low exports ratio and high standard economic growth.Further more study on the influence of exports in value added by different industries on TFP shows that the higher technology standard inserted into the commodities will have more opportunity to prompt the technology progress.Because of the technology leading status,developed countries will benefit from the high technology industry exports in value added.Another study view that the influence of exports in value addede by different areas on TFP shows that the commodities exported to developing countries and BRIC economies will enhance the TFP of developed countries,and the commodity category is mainly high-tech intermediate goods which will participate into the global value chain.Based on the Korea quarterly time series data of 1995-2014,using cointegration analysis and ECM model,we found that South Korea's per capita export value rose1%,the per capita GDP will increase by 0.16%,while TFP will increase 0.28%.Similar to the role of export in developed economies,influence of export on economic growth in Korea is mainly based on the new economic growth theory from the perspective of technological progress.Specific to the influence of different industry on TFP,the higher the technology content of exports,the more conducive to technological progress in Korea which further reflects the position of South Korea's leading technology.Further study on exports in different areas of added value accounted for TFP,and results show that the export to developing countries and BRIC economies will improve the TFP of South Korea.Due to the international production destination has been transferred to the developing countries and BRIC countries,participating in the international division of production and export of high technology intermediate goods will be conducive to its technological progress.Using 1995-2014 China quarterly time series data for quantitative analysis,results show that per capita export value increased 1%,the per capita GDP will increase 0.695%,but TFP is hardly affected by the added value of exports per capita growth.Further leads to concerns about exports in China.Because the growth of GDP caused by a large number of low-end production factors which participate in the international division of labor is not stable.If export cann't effectively promote the technology progress,its difficult that exports promote long-term sustainable economic growth.Further study about the influence of different industries and different regions of the export value on TFP,industry sector which will promote technological progress is mainly concentrated in high technology industry sector and service industry.The development of China high-end service industry rapidly,such as finance,insurance,which has turn to be a new force to prompt TFP suddenly.Details about different regions are still concentrated in the heartland of global value chain production,and the exports destination which are developing countries are more likely to promote technological progress of China.Based on the classical economic growth theory and new economic growth theory,and using trade in value added as the true earning of exports to carry out research about the influence of exports on economic growth.Results show as follows: Exports in value added as part of GDP has a significant role in promoting GDP,but based on new economic growth theory,heterogeneity affection about the influence of export on technology progress is the key whether exports can promote the economy's long-term sustainable economic growth;Each economies has different technology level,so the technology absorption capacity will be distinctive from the dynamic sense.The influence of exports in value added in different industries on TFP will depend on country's absorptive capability of technology,so the export trade policy needs to be adjusted based on the technical level,and expanding commodities export in special industry which are suitable to their ability to absorb technology and can be conducive to the promotion of their technology progress;Another dimension study results show that different export destinations of export commodity demand has great difference,with multinational companies gradually shift the global value chain to developingcountries and BRIC economies for lower cost,so integrating into the global value chain,technological progress will be realized by exportting commodities to developing countries and BRIC economics.