Economic And Environmental Impact And Policy Simulation On The Development Of Shallow Geothermal Resources In Beijing

Faced with the pressing need to reduce coal-fired and environmental improvements the geothermal resource industry in Beijing has achieved rapid development in recent years.However,the industry’s impact on Beijing’s economic development and environment and what policies are needed to encourage or constrain the development of the industry have become urgent issues for research.Based on the assessment of the development and utilization of shallow geothermal resources in Beijing on the city’s economic and environmental impacts,the paper builds a system dynamics model for shallow geothermal resource industry development and simulates the trend of shallow geothermal resource industry development and changes in economic and environmental impacts based on scenario design then proposes the policy recommendations for the development of shallow geothermal resources industry in Beijing.The research work and innovative results obtained in this paper are as follows:(1)The input-output table of the Beijing’s shallow geothermal resource is compiled based on the data of one project.The paper selects a typical project as the basic data for the input-output analysis of development of shallow geothermal resource,based on the input-output table in 2012 in Beijing,compiles the horizontal and horizontal data,and completes the calculation of indicators such as intermediate investment rate,intermediate demand rate,and sensitivity coefficient.(2)A dynamic model for the development and utilization of shallow geothermal resources in Beijing is constructed.Based on the characteristics of development of shallow geothermal resources,this paper analyzes the main elements of shallow geothermal resource subsystems,economic subsystems and environmental subsystems,establishes the causality and feedback mechanism among factors,and constructs the system dynamics model of development of shallow geothermal resources in Beijing.(3)Aiming at the development of shallow geothermal resources in Beijing,the paper puts forward policy recommendations,calculates and analyzes the trends of shallow geothermal resources development and utilization and the impact on the economy and the environment in the scenario of subsidy parameters,carbon tax parameters and technical parameters adjusted separately in 2017-2027.The simulation results show that changes in the financial subsidy parameters are not significant for the promotion of the size and added value of shallow geothermal resources,the carbon taxation can improve the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of shallow geothermal resources,while the improvement of technical parameters not only improves the scale of shallow geothermal resources development and economic value-added,but also improves the benefits of energy conservation and emission reduction.Therefore,Beijing should adjust subsidies and quotas properly,simplifies procedures and reduce time limits.The government should also explores implementing carbon tax collection and other taxation tools to enhance the positive role carbon tax and carbon emission permit play in the utilization of shallow geothermal resources.At the same time,we should increase spending on resources and technological development,play more attention to weak points,key parameters and talent training to improve the level of exploitation and utilization of shallow geothermal resources.