| The challenge or choice that our economy faces at present,is the problem that all levels of government and public concern generally.The economic growth has three basic drivers: labor,capital and total factor productivity.Although massive investment,large numbers of new workers and improvement of efficiency have made important contribution to the high economy growth of the past 30 years,the problems posed by the three factors are becoming more and more obvious and Supply-side Structural Reform has become the main thread throughout the whole process of macro-control.Input-output method,which is derived from the matrix algebra and has been internationally used to study economic structure problems,includes the traditional input-output model and the dynamic input-output model.However,the dynamic input-output model developed so far is mainly used for studying the connection between the productive fixed assets and social reproduction for different times,barely about the “Inter-year Dynamic Input-Output Model”.This paper has not only proposed the frame structure to compile the “Inter-year Dynamic Input-Output Table”,but also compiled the China 1987~2017 inter-year dynamic input-output table covering 31 years and 30 sectors by using the 1987~2017 input-output tables of China.What's more,some innovations have been made in the compilation of tables and the macroeconomic problems of our country have been studied based on the inter-year dynamic input-output table.In a word,this paper has improved the basic theory of dynamic input-output model,enriched the basic tools of input-output table to study economic problems and also provided a lot of basic data support for the research of related problems.The work done in this paper can be divided into the following points.(1)The missing input-output tables between 1987 to 2017 have been compiled.By using the RAS method and R software,this paper has complied 31 input-output tables of the same departments,which are consist of 18 missing input-output tables and 13 official input-output tables calculated at producers' prices in those years,and which improved the basic data of the research.(2)This paper has complied the China 1987~2017 comparable input-output tables,whose base period is the year of 2002.By using the common method to compile the comparable input-output tables,the value added of some department may be negative in some special year.For this reason,some improvement has been made on the basis of the existing compilation method in this paper.First of all,based on existing national statistical data,a 1987~2017 comparable input-output price index system has been made,which consist of the price index of the first-second quadrant and the price index of the third quadrant,and which has been used to compile the “initial comparable input-output tables”.Secondly,this paper proposes a “iterative method” to adjust the initial comparable input-output tables,which draw lessons from the idea of RAS method.Finally,the China 1987~2017 comparable input-output tables has been compiled,which is a more in line with the real economy and has few errors.Those tables lay a foundation for the compilation of inter-year dynamic input-output table and provide a large amount of data for the application part of this paper and relevant research.(3)Improve the theoretical frame work of the inter-year dynamic input-output table and compile the China 1987~2017 inter-year dynamic input-output table,whose base period is 2002.At present,there are little researches on the construction of inter-year dynamic input-output model and the compilation method of tables.According to the basic nature of “the production process in past years cannot consume the products produced in the future”,the inter-year input-output model internalizes exogenous variables by introducing the investment distribution coefficient.Then,traditional input-output models of different years are linked through the operation of the model and capital accumulation in the past is connected with the present and future of economic development.In a word,investigating the relationship between capital input and expanded reproduction in a time series not only has certain theoretical value,but also provides a powerful tool for the follow-up dynamic analysis and research on national economic activities.This part is also the core content of this paper.(1)Making sure the “link variable” of the inter-year dynamic input-output table and the specific allocation base for different quadrant.Firstly,based on Marx's theory of social reproduction,the Total Capital Formation in the traditional input-output table is selected as the link variable among years.Secondly,in order to study the connection between the link variable and the next years,this paper considers the differences in the nature of capital accumulation's constituent items and determines the specific allocation base of link variables in each quadrant of the inter-year table.As for the Inventory Increase in this index,according to its connotation,its productive part combined with the gross fixed capital formation is treated as the “productive investment” and only decomposed at the inter-year and departmental level in the first quadrant,no longer used in the final use part of the second quadrant.While its rest part is treated as the “non-productive investment” and has been only decomposed in the second quadrant.The outstanding amount is treated as the balance of each period and put into the “productive investment balance” and “inventory increase balance” in the second quadrant of the inter-year input-output table.(2)A “New Three-Step Flow Decomposition Method” is proposed to solve the flow decomposition problem of upper triangular block matrix in the first quadrant of the inter-year table.Step one,the time-lag of the productive investment by sector in the inter-year table is comprehensive determined by the cumulative comparison method,the useful life of a fixed asset stipulated in the tax law and actual production condition.Step two,a maneuverable “binomial distributed depreciation theory” is proposed from the perspective of capital efficiency change and been used to calculate the investment distribution coefficient of each year and productive investment's annual share.Step three,the annual productive investment is decomposed at the department level by using the structure method from the perspective of practical use.(3)Compiled the inter-year dynamic input-output table for China from 1987 to 2017(2002 year=100),which has a long time span and more divisions.At present,there is no example of compiling in this respect,and the compiling method has certain reference value,and also lays the data foundation for the follow-up application research.(4)Conduct applied research from the shallow to the deep by using the comparable tables and inter-year table.On one hand,this paper analyzes the evolution of gross and structure,interdepartmental correlation characteristics and changes in the process of national economy from production to final use.On the other hand,by assuming that investment has a lag on economic growth and a relatively long-term impact on output,this paper tries to change the traditional understanding of economic growth to the train of thought of this article.By combining the inter-year input-output analysis method and the econometric analysis method,panel production function model has been used to explained how the accumulative investment of each department affects the current period and the change trend.In a word,this article makes a beneficial attempt on the application based on the inter-year dynamic input-output table,and the relevant research results provide theoretical and data support for the structural reform in China.(1)Due to the transformation and upgrading of the industry and the optimization of the department structure,although China's total index has not performed well in recent years,the future will be better.At the overall level,the total index appears increasing situation at first sight and then decreases after that.In the three periods of 1987~1990,1996~2000 and recent years,the total indexes are lower than the average level of the whole period.At the industrial level,the continuous expansion of China's economic scale during this period mainly depended on the production activities of the secondary industry,and the changing trend of various indicators was basically consistent with that of the whole country.Meanwhile,the tertiary industry has emerged and become a new battlefield for China's economic transformation and upgrading,which provides a strong guarantee for China's economic growth and industrialization process.At the product sector level,the internal structure of each industry has been constantly optimized,and the economic growth mode has evolved from the extensive type of resource dependence to the intensive type driven by informatization,which will be better in the future.(2)Based on the characteristics of the input-output table,whose longitudinal direction can reflect the input source and demand consumption of production,and the row direction reflects the distribution of output and the characteristics of supply and use,this paper analyzed the inter-departmental correlation characteristics and changing trend.From the perspective of demand,with the gradual refinement of industrial division of labor in China,the total organic composition of capital and the total service rate of the national economy production activities are increasing year by year,but the intermediate consumption of each product sector presents different changing trends.For example,in 14 of the 30 sectors,the proportion of intermediate inputs rises and the proportion of direct inputs falls,while most manufacturing sectors,wholesale and retail sector,accommodation and catering sector show a decline in material consumption per unit product,which reflects the improvement of production technology to some extent.In addition,most departments show a certain degree of increase for their own products consumption,and increase the direct consumption for the tertiary industry's products,but the direct consumption of the primary industry's products is decreasing.The intermediate input ratio required by the downstream terminal industry is large and various,and the demand affection can spread to a wide range.If this kind of sector conforms to the direction of national industrial upgrading,stimulating its production capacity can accelerate economic growth,which should be given priority support.From the perspective of supply,on the one hand,the proportion of the total amount of intermediate use in the total output shows an increasing trend over time.Only a small part of the products produced by various departments are directly used as final products,and the vast majority go into the production process of its downstream industry to participate in the higher level of production.On the other hand,China's economic growth is driven by both domestic and external demand.The speed of both final consumption and structural optimization and upgrading is accelerating and the consumption structure has changed from the traditional physical goods to the situation of paying equal attention to physical goods and services.At the same time,with the deepening of the reform and opening up process,China's foreign trade structure has also undergone a great change,in which exports transforms from traditional products to products with high added value and high-tech products with high technical content.In addition,one unit of initial input of the energy department,raw materials department and producer services sector can produce strong supply driving ability,which is better than average.Since this kind of sectors are always the basic industry and short board of national economy,easily raise some questions: the lack of supply shortages and rising prices.Therefore,improving the supply capacity of these sectors is the key point of achieving sustained,stable and healthy economic development.For a few sectors where the role of supply promotion is gradually weakening,the demand for their input from the society is actually decreasing gradually,so it is necessary to prevent the emergence of overcapacity and other problems.(3)A panel Cobb-Douglas production function model has been constructed by using the data from the inter-year dynamic input-output table.The description of "capital investment" index has also been distinguished between wealth attribute and production attribute of capital stock,which is different from that of the past.Considering the time lag of each sector,the accumulation of productive investment of previous years is sorted out from the inter-year table as “productive capital accumulation” and obtained as the proxy index of “capital input” to construct the production function model of product sector in China from1987 to 2017.The result of research shows that,with the upgrading of the industrial structure,the allocation of capital investment in the industry is also constantly optimized,and the focus of investment shifts from agriculture and low-end industries to high-end manufacturing and modern service industries.In the production process of China's national economy,the efficiency coefficient of each department is not only influenced by the individual at the level of product department,but also significantly different with the change of years.What's more,the output elasticity coefficient of capital and the output elasticity coefficient of labor are significantly affected by the change of product sector structure. |
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