Chongqing City Fuzzy Economic System Input-output Model

In recent years, due to economic globalization, the rapid development of science and technology, the economic social phenomena is volatile increasingly, social research mostly make use of traditional statistical analysis method in the past, but now because of the continued progress of the times, and gradually do not meet the present-day complex changing of environment, and often feel a lack of research methods and application. In particular, the problem of uncertainty we encounter when we analyze economic phenomena is more complicated than we thought. In addition to random economic phenomena, but also including incomplete information, ambiguous description. Using the fuzzy concept to some special analysis of the socio-economic phenomenon, its effect may be better than the precise mathematical method. Construction of fuzzy economic system, can give us further understanding of the socio-economic phenomena.In this paper, fuzzy economic system as the research object, the associated input-output technology apply to the fuzzy economic system, making use of membership function to characterize the ambiguity of the economic system, which will realize the transition from direct consumption coefficient matrix to the direct consumption coefficient matrix of fuzzy, is established fuzzy input-output model based on fuzzy economic system, and then applied to the fuzzy economic system in Chongqing. The text is main researching from four aspects as follows:First, the paper researches characteristics of the fuzzy economic system.It main draw domestic and international economic systems and fuzzy systems research experience, and propose a fuzzy concept of the economic system, and have a depth analysis of the theory of the fuzzy economic systems, the paper introduces the principle of fuzzy structure of economic systems, the construction of fuzzy economic system, describes the relevance of fuzzy economic system, economic system of fuzzy quantification, defines the scope of the concept of fuzzy economic system in this study, further defined the scope of this study. Second, this paper introduces the establishment methods of regional fuzzy economic systems and associated analysis techniques. The paper introduces how to identify fuzzy economic system, and describes the element characteristics of regional fuzzy economic system and has decomposition on the projects of the regional fuzzy economic system and also researches the construction of the regional fuzzy economic system. This paper demonstrates the advantages using fuzzy input-output technology, which is the function of input-output analysis method in fuzzy economic system.Third, this paper proposes the concept of fuzzy input and output, using fuzzy concept, select and determine membership function of fuzzy input and output to construct a fuzzy direct consumption coefficient matrix, using the input-output method to establish a regional economic system input and output fuzzy model and the development of fuzzy input-output tables.Fourth, take Chongqing City for example, this paper conducts empirical research on the operation of the fuzzy economic system, establishes the 42 departments fuzzy input-output model of Chongqing to determine the 42 departments fuzzy direct consumption coefficient matrix, then use the improved RAS Act to amend the fuzzy direct consumption coefficient matrix, and the preparation of the fuzzy input-output table. And the paper have direct correlation analysis, analysis of key sectors, final demand analysis and the initial investment analysis on 42 departments of Chongqing, and then predict the composition of total output and end-use during "Twelve-Five" period. Conclusions obtained from this paper can provide some guidance and reference for the relevant decision-making departments of Chongqing.