Research On The Measurement Method Of Economic Growth Driven By Science And Technology Innovation From The Perspective Of Boom State

In recent years,the CPC central committee has put forward the strategy of implementing innovation-driven development strategy and "Mass entrepreneurship and innovation" strategy.To build the national innovation system of Chinese characteristics and to further promote supply-side structural reform,these strategic decisions have become the important historical tasks of China's economic development into the "New normal".In the process,not only to change the pattern of economic development,adjust the structure of economic growth,promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industry,but also need to improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth,inclusive growth and comprehensive,balanced and sustainable development.To achieve these goals does not rely too much on the past and the elements of investment,but rather to highlight the leading role of science and technology innovation for economic growth,set up by enterprises as the main body,science and technology innovation enterprises,universities,research institutes,science and technology intermediary agencies,financial institutions,government departments and users in collaborative innovation system of production in order to smoothly through the economic growth "phase shift",realize the pattern of economic development under the "new normal" smooth transition and economic growth of the mass transfer efficiency.At present,China's economic growth is still in the investment driving stage as a whole,and it is not obvious that scientific and technological innovation will drive economic growth.How to monitor the real-time status and actual level of scientific and technological innovation to drive economic growth becomes the question urgently needed to be solved in the current innovation economics.At present,the empirical study of scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth tends to measure the science and technology innovation performance,ability and efficiency,and the measurement indicators often do not will be closely combined with scientific and technological innovation and economic growth.Based on input-output angle measurement of total factor productivity(TFP)reflect the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress in economic growth process still essentially measures the input in the share of economic growth,and using the methods of DEA and SFA are measuring technological innovation efficiency,and reflecting the input-output ratio.Based on the interpretation of Schumpeter's innovation cycle and economic growth cycle theory,through literature study and theoretical analysis,based on business status of scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth mechanism of cyclical fluctuations.On this basis,the use of scientific and technological innovation climate index and macroeconomic climate index(or GDP growth rate conversion index)to construct scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth boom index,and using the index of quantitative to measure the scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth level and the booming trend changes,validation of scientific and technological innovation driver of economic growth,the existence of periodic fluctuation.On this basis,according to the process of technological innovation input and output and economic development of the internal structure hierarchy structure of scientific and technological innovation and economic development index to measure the actual effect of scientific and technological innovation driven economy development.The empirical research,using China,the United States,Japan,France and Germany as examples,is to use the five scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth climate index to analyze developed countries and developing countries drive economic growth situation of national science and technology innovation by multiply angle comparison,and put forward the scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth climate index system of early warning methods,so the scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth boom index can be applied in practice.The following research results are obtained:(1)Based on the interpretation of Schumpeter's innovation cycle and economic growth cycle theory and sentiment of the state of the scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth mechanism of cyclical fluctuations,and constructing the theoretical basis on the scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth climate index.Through literature study and theoretical analysis,the paper puts forward and defines the meanings and characteristics of the cyclical economy growth and volatility based on the business status of scientific and technological innovation to drive on the basis of regional innovation system,and the internal and external research based on the good state of scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth influence factors of cyclical fluctuations,on the basis of summarized the business status of scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth based on the mechanism of periodic fluctuation.(2)Based on the relationship between scientific and technological innovation and economic growth,the construction method of science and technology innovation driving economic growth index is proposed.Comprehensive utilization of time series analysis,Houjin-bogu(Lay more stress on the present than on the past)normalization method and weighted exponential ratio method,using the index to measure the scientific and technological innovation driven economic growth state of relative prosperity and prosperity trend changes quantitatively.The dynamic elastic analysis of the economic growth driven by science and technology is measured by the variable coefficient model of the state space equation.The driving index provides the basis for the study of the sequential change law of science and technology innovation and economic growth.(3)Based on the input-output process of scientific and technological innovation and economic development of the internal and hierarchy structure to construct scientific and technological innovation and economic development index systems,and uses the variation coefficient method and exponential smoothing method to construct scientific and technological innovation and economic development index and VAR model to measure the real effect for the economic development driven by scientific and technological innovation.The science and technology innovation driving economic development structure index can help to understand the deep structural problems of science and technology innovation driving economic development.(4)The paper puts forward the periodicity and volatility measurement model on the scientific and technological innovation driving economic growth,and studies on the characteristics of the volatility characteristics of the short and medium periods in the growth of science and technology innovation driving economic growth.From the perspective of periodicity and volatility,we should know more about the law of economic growth driven by science and technology innovation.To verify Schumpeter's innovation cycle interpretation and economic growth cycle theory in current practice,the paper provides timely reference for the formulation of government science and technology innovation policies and the allocation of enterprise science and technology innovation resources.(5)From the input structure of scientific and technological innovation and the relative prosperity of science and technology innovation driving economic growth to analyze the differences and similarities between developed countries(USA,Japan,France and Germany)and developing countries(China)in the process of science and technological innovation driving economic growth to implement innovation-driven development strategy for China's effective deployment,and it will provide policy reference for driving and guiding the development of scientific and technological innovation in the process of economic growth.(6)The leading index has a better leading prediction effect for the consensus index.The paper uses the leading index as a predictor and the science and technology innovation driving economic growth leading index to predict the consensus index by using ARMA model for comparative analysis of prediction effect.In this paper,three kinds of discriminant analysis methods are used to analyze the comprehensive indicators of science and technology innovation to drive economic growth,and to construct an early warning signal system for comparative analysis.The study of the early-warning method system of science and technology innovation to drive economic growth is helpful to the application of science and technology innovation driving economic growth index in practice.