Study On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of China's Alternative Fuel Vehicle Industry

With the development of science and technology and the progress of the society,people's life have been constantly improving,but at the same time,due to excessive exploitation of the environment,it also brings a series of problems of resource depletion,environmental pollution,and caused widespread concern around the world,many countries have generally realized,to achieve harmonious unification nature,environment,society,must vigorously develop new energy industry.In recent years,with the rapid expansion of total economic output,China's oil consumption increased year by year,while the car is the main force in the oil consumption,since the beginning of 2009,China's automobile production and sales year after year ranked first in the world,with the increase of car ownership in China,the contradiction between market demand and energy and environmental constraints become more and more prominent,the development of alternative fuel vehicles is a basic measure to solve the problem of pollution and energy consumption,the development of alternative fuel vehicle be imperative,China has promulgated a series of policies,and the alternative fuel vehicle industry has been established as China's one of seven strategic emerging industry,in 2012,the State Council promulgated the "Twelfth Five Year 'national strategic emerging industry development planning" emphasized that,by 2020,and strive to make the alternative fuel vehicle industry has become the leading industry in the national economy.Alternative fuel vehicle industry has the characteristics of high investment,high risk,strategic,if the error or failure appear in the process of development direction,will have a huge impact on China's auto industry and even the whole national economy,therefore it objectively needs to combine with our country's actual development of the alternative fuel vehicle industry,conducts the research to the alternative fuel vehicle industry risk of our country,timely identify the risk of the process of industrial development,and to evaluate the risk,determine the focus areas of risk and risk control priorities,reduce the uncertainty of industrial development,so as to provide support for the enterprise,industry and policy departments,and promote the healthy development of the alternative fuel vehicle industry.Firstly,the paper forecasts the future oil consumption and vehicle ownership in China,and analyzes the current situation and problems of the development of alternative fuel vehicle industry.Through the forecast,with the future oil consumption and the data of automobile two important,we further verify the urgency of developing alternative fuel vehicle industry.Through the analysis of current situation and problems,this shows that China's development of alternative fuel vehicle industry is urgent.Secondly,this paper introduces the concept of alternative fuel vehicle,and analyze the features of the alternative fuel vehicle industry;based on the introduction of risk and industrial risk on the related theories,determine the definition of the risk of alternative fuel vehicle industry and scope of this study,and carries on the analysis from two angle of endogenous and exogenous mechanisms on the risk formation of alternative fuel vehicle.Basis on those,according to the current situation and problems of the development of alternative fuel vehicle in China,presents the risk characteristics,characteristics of the Chinese alternative fuel vehicle industry risk identification and evaluation method should possess,builds the model of China's alternative fuel vehicle industry risk identification and evaluation;through static recognition of alternative fuel vehicle industry in China from the risk source perspective,in particular through the use of multiple linear methods,screen indicators of risk of alternative fuel vehicle industry,establish a risk evaluation index system,identify the key source of risk,and the risk index connotation analyses;At the same time,taking into account the recognition of industry risk if only analysis risk factors isolated,it obviously cannot fully explain the realistic problem of industry risk,this paper us the FIR analysis model(Factor-Interaction-Risk Model),the interaction relationship between risk factors identified by three-dimensional picture,with the alternative fuel vehicle industry risk and obtain the static perspective.This paper uses scenario analysis method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the evaluation of dynamic identification and risk level on the alternative fuel vehicle industry risk in china.Scenario analysis on the risk of possible future to identify the specific process is:through the formulation and issuance of questionnaires,the numerous stakeholders to collect,mining the key risk factors and analyzed,thereby determining uncertain axis;on the basis of uncertain axis development scenarios in the future,to describe the risk of future scenarios,to build several the risk of possible future scenarios of alternative fuel vehicle industry in China;based on the identification of risk factors and risk situation of the possible,combining with the characteristics of China's alternative fuel vehicle industry,comprehensive application of risk matrix method,the group eigenvalue,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,evaluation of the alternative fuel vehicle industry risk in our country and to determine the risk level,in the last part of this paper,gives the countermeasures and suggestions for China's alternative fuel vehicle industry.