The Study Of China Participating In East-asian Economic Integration

Since the subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis,the global economy has been still in a difficult recovery.Most of the developed economies and emerging economies are not out of the crisis,still trying to get rid of the status quo of weak economic growth.From the perspective of the situation of domestic economic,China's economic growth has entered the New Normal,which has been declining since 2011.Influenced by the weak global economic recovery and the complicated international situation,China faces huge downward pressure on economic growth and development.In the post-TPP era,more and more countries are supporting RCEP and FTAAP,which can be a good opportunity for China to carry forward East-Asian Economic Integration,and trigger a new economic growth point.With the rise of global value chain,intra-product trade began to play an increasingly important role.The traditional international division is changing from the division of product to the division of factors based on the production links of the value chain.Multinational companies integrate regional and global resources,which make the further integration of trade and investment become the main trend of the development of international trade under the new situation.Regional economic integration theory need to adapt to the new development of international trade division and its theoretical basis should be based in the new international division of labor theory.Compared with the traditional pattern of division,the global value chain division in the production of products will increase trade costs cross national borders,which would increase more while the production links and times of crossing borders increase.Because of the cumulative effects caused by import barriers of intermediate products,even lower tariffs will make the trade costs increase significantly,which would ultimately affect the production cost of finished goods,sales price and the market competitiveness.In the case of no tariffs,the negative impact on the global value chain of low border management efficiency,weak supervision of import and export,and poor quality of logistics service also should not be ignored.Those bottlenecks of the trade facilitation essentially forced the cost of trade in goods increased.Under the condition of global value chain division,international direct investment is not only the efficient way to realize the allocation of resources,but also provides the approach for the host country to integrate into the global value chain and yield profits,benefit from technology spillover,increase employment,etc.Diving investment liberalization and facilitation through regional economic integration could eliminate the factors of capital flow,improve the efficiency of capital circulation,enhance the beneficial interaction between international trade and international direct investment,and promote the development of the global value chain.This thesis analyzed the trades among mainland China and other East-Asian economies,and found that the import and export of Hong Kong,Cambodia maintained the strong complementarity with China.Japan,Singapore,Malaysia,Philippines and Brunei have been maintained a strong trade complementarities with mainland China in a long period,but in recent years are characterized by weaker complementarity in different degrees.Taiwan,Korea,Mongolia,Indonesia,Thailand,Laos,Myanmar,except for a few years,basically maintained weaker complementarity with mainland China.Furthermore,this thesis analyzed the trade efficiency and potential among China and other East-Asian economies,and the impact of free trade area,using stochastic frontier gravity model.The result shows that the trades among China and developed economies in East Asia have higher trade efficiency,and the trades among China and developing economies in East Asia have higher trade potential.Free trade agreements can significantly improve the efficiency of China's exports to the East-Asian economies,and also significantly affect the stability of the export efficiency,but only negatively affect the stability of the import efficiency.In addition,China's import efficiency for East-Asia is generally higher than the export efficiency,and China's export shows greater potential.The GTAP model has been used to simulate the economic effects of the "10+3"cooperation mechanism,Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and signing bilateral free trade agreements respectively.The simulation results show that China's economy could benefit from the expansion of regional economic integration,and the establishment of a unified free trade area has a greater impact on China's economy than signing bilateral free trade agreements respectively.Japan would be the biggest beneficiary of East-Asia regional economic integration,but developing countries in East-Asia risk falling into "immiserizing growth" in the process of East-Asia economic integration.China has experienced"immiserizing growth" under the "10+3" mechanism,and this problem could be solved with the expansion of FTAs.Developing countries in ASEAN have shown a trend of "immiserizing growth" in several simulation results,and the expansion of the FTAs could not improve the situation.In the end,this paper suggests that,to avoid developing countries of ASEAN being caught in "immiserizing growth" in the process of East-Asia economic integration,China should give full play to the Belt and Road Initiative to promote economic development,build a community of common destiny with ASEAN,and share the achievement of economic integration.China also should establish a network of East-Asia FTAs exerting the linkage mechanism of key FTAs.Along with consolidating the existing factor endowment advantages and cultivating new factor endowment advantages,China's position in global value chains will be promoted.