Research On The Regional Heterogeneity Of The Fiscal Expenditure's Economic Growth Effects

Public finance is the foundation as well as an important pillar of state governance.Influences of multi-factors such as nature,geography and social history etc.all contribute to the differences of development foundation and conditions in various regions.Guided by the concept of coordinated development for all regions,the unbalance of regional development has been improved,shaping new regional growth patterns.However,the uneven problem in regional development cannot be ignored.The fiscal policy,as part of the public policy,bear the important responsibility of narrowing the gap and promoting regional coordinated development.Public expenditure which is considered to be an important tool of the fiscal policy,exerts a profound influence on the achievement of fiscal policy's macro-economic regulation function through the scale,structure and pattern of expenditure.To investigate the macro-economic effects of fiscal expenditure from the aspect of regional heterogeneity,and to explore various fiscal policies which fit the regional reality helps to enhance the pertinence and validity of fiscal policy in the regional regulation.It also helps to fully stimulate the initiative and creativity of all regions,to minimize the regional disparity in the progress of promoting economic development and raising income level,achieving regional coordinated development.The dissertation based on the reality of unbalanced regional development in China,makes a thorough analysis of the regional heterogeneity problem of public expenditure's economic growth effects.On the basis of demonstrating the regional disparity facts of public expenditure and economic growth,the dissertation clarifies the mechanism of regional heterogeneity by public expenditure economic growth effects and explores the moderate scale and reasonable structure of regional public expenditure under the economic growth target.First of all,on the basis of sorting and summing up the relevant theory,practical experience and the research method of public expenditure's macro-economic effects,the dissertation analyze the transmission mechanism of public expenditure influence economic growth and ways and means the public expenditure economic growth effects' regional heterogeneity work from a theoretical perspective.Secondly,the dissertation indicate the public expenditure economic growth effects' regional heterogeneity from two dimensions including static and dynamic state.From the static dimension,the dissertation calculates the public expenditure multiplier,the output elasticity and expenditure productivity from the perspective of magnitude and structure based on the facts of public expenditure and economic growth regional heterogeneity.It also explores the feedback effect of which public expenditure disparity exerts on economic growth disparity based on the Theil Index.From the perspective of dynamic dimension,the dissertation establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model containing consumer,manufacturer and government,and investigates the macro-economic effect's regional disparity created by the public expenditure from both short-term and long-term periods.It also inspect the magnitude of influences as well as the level of responsiveness for macro-economic effect given different policy portfolios using sensitivity analysis.Thirdly,on the basis of public expenditure economic growth effect regional static disparity and dynamic heterogeneity effect analysis,the dissertation analyze the deep level reason of public expenditure economic growth effects' regional heterogeneity from four aspects including resource endowments(endogeneity),the degree of marketization(conductivity),regional policy(institution)as well as fiscal decentralization and local government behavioral differentiation.The dissertation also gives experimental tests on all these main impact factors.After that,it indicates the spatial effects of public expenditure economic growth effects.Lastly,it introduces the public expenditure into the endogenous economic growth model and explore the influences the magnitude of public expenditure made on the route of balanced growth,proving theoretically that there is non-linear effect between the magnitude of public expenditure and economic growth.It also calculates the moderate scale and proper structure of public expenditure under the objective of economic growth using panel threshold regression model in experimental test.The main conclusion of this dissertation is as follows:(1)The disparity in regional economic development and public expenditure displays convergence as a whole,but the differentiation for the parity in the western part of China is quite obvious.(2)The disparity of economic growth mainly comes from differences in regions,but the disparity of public expenditure mainly comes from inner regions.And disparity of regional public expenditure is an important reason for that of economic growth.(3)The public expenditure's overall promoting effect on economic growth is obvious,and the short-term effect of active fiscal policy is bigger than the long-term effect.(4)The productivity of public expenditure is generally not high,and the expansion of absolute magnitude does not bring improvement for productivity.These are the protruding contradictions facing the implement of regional fiscal policy.(5)The simulation results based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with closed economy containing three sectors of consumer,manufacturer and government show that productive public expenditure impact has not only positive instantaneous effect but also lasting positive effect on output.Unproductive public expenditure impact has only positive instantaneous effect without lasting positive effect on output.There are differences in the output effect of regional public expenditure impact,at the present stage,the economic growth in the eastern area benefits more form the improvement of economic soft environment compared to that in the western part of China which mainly comes from the direct effect of productive public expenditure.The sensitivity analysis results of personal capital output elasticity show that the influences productive public expenditure and personal capital made on economic growth has certain degree of substitution.Government should reduce its interference of economic and build good market environment.The government could also increase proper productive public expenditure to stable economy,but should exit according to the changing situation of the personal capital output elasticity.(6)Resource endowments,degree of marketization,regional policy and fiscal decentralization are important impact factors of public expenditure economic growth effect regional heterogeneity.The influences of western development program and the strategy of "prosperous central China" on regional economic promotion have been obvious.(7)The economy of different provinces in China has displayed spatial positive correlation.Regional human resources exhibit spatial spillover and the spillover effect of the unproductive expenditure in eastern area is bigger than the productive expenditure.The situation in the central and western area is vice versa.(8)The scale of public expenditure and economic growth is inverted U shaped nonlinear correlation.The estimated results based on panel threshold effect regression model display,the optimal scale of public expenditure of eastern,central,western area and also the whole country is 22.20%,17.74%,22.35%and 22.24%respectively.The optimal scale of productive public expenditure is 49.98%,51.40%,47.86%and 47.52%respectively.To take the average public expenditure percentage from the year 1997 to 2015 as the real scale of public expenditure at the present stage,the central area gets the highest score,and the western area gets the lowest with regard to the room for improvement for the magnitude and structure of regional public expenditure.In a word,the regional economic development has displayed convergence trend but still has some disparity.The economic development differences in various provinces within the inner part of an area have become new problems in the balanced development in regional economies.Thus,the structure of expenditure should show the disparity of regional development at the same time of controlling the rise of public expenditure scale rationally;To improve the productivity of public expenditure with the important task of budget performance management;To build the institution of fiscal policy regional regulation guaranteed by the improvement of transfer payments;To realize potential of market institution and achieve the coordinated balance development among different regions and within inner regions directed by the deepening of marketization reform.