Research On Typhoon Disaster Warning Scheduling Based On Public Risk Perception

Typhoon is one of the world's most severe natural disasters.It happens frequently and has wide and destructive impact,which brings great threat to human life and property security,especially in the southeast coastal areas in China.But when people take effective protective measures against typhoons or the similar predictable disasters,they can greatly reduce their serious consequences.Therefore,in the study of typhoon disaster,how to effectively implement emergency evacuation in a limited time has become the focus of national researches.At present,the preparedness and planning against the typhoon disaster in our country have not formed a complete system.Evacuation planning is usually directed by the central government,and the local government responsible for the implementation of the planning according to specific circumstances.In the process of evacuation,the power of the government and the army is the mainly way to execute mandatory evacuation order.Although this way can ensure the safety of public lives and property at the greatest extent,but it consumes a lot of manpower and resources.During the cities' large-scale evacuation,as the number of private cars has been increasing,self-evacuation has become the main mode of evacuation in the case of typhoon disaster.Therefore,how to dig the factors effecting individual risk perception,how to analyze the mechanism of individual evacuation decision-making behavior and the evacuation timing choice behavior,how to explore the factors effecting evacuation behavior decision-making,how to predict the emergency evacuation demands accurately,and how to improve the efficiency of the evacuation,are important issues of the typhoon disaster emergency evacuation in our country to be solved.This thesis begins with situation and problems of typhoon disaster emergency evacuation in our country.Then based on the theory of existing researches and the analysis of the factors affecting the individual risk perception,take the analysis of individual evacuation behavior decision making as main research chain,and then predict the typhoon disaster evacuation demands.Finally put forward the typhoon disaster warning scheduling scheme,so that to improve the government's risk communication level and emergency evacuation efficiency.Firstly,dissect the present situation and problems of the warning system of typhoon disaster in our country,and define the concept of warning information scheduling.From the perspective of public,the theories of risk perception,the typhoon disaster response behavior and risk communication are introduced.By analyzing the current situation of the typhoon disaster emergency evacuation in our country,and reviewing the existing related researches,the logical context of this study is obtained,which is " factors affecting disaster risk perception--evacuation behavior decision-making mechanism,prediction of evacuation demand--evacuation warning information scheduling".Then clarify the content frame from the perspective of problem-solving with the beginning of solving the root of the problem.Secondly,explore effect factors of public risk perception of typhoon disaster.By using structural equation and hierarchical regression analyze the relationship between individual characteristics,trust,experience,knowledge,warning information and public risk perception in typhoon disaster.At the same time,the questionnaire survey is used to collect the relevant data,and empirical analysis is used to verify the hypothesis,which provided data support for the following part of the research.The research on the effect factors of risk perception is the basis of understanding individual behavior decision and the scientific guidance and theoretical basis for improving the level of risk communication.Thirdly,explore the evacuation decision-making mechanism,including the analysis of evacuation decisions and evacuation timing choice behavior.These two parts are the two key problems of predicting evacuation demand.For the part of evacuation decision,by using the method of evolutionary game theory,evacuation decision-making mechanisms are analyzed under the condition of the voluntary evacuation and government involvement respectively.Result shows that government involvement has promoted evacuation.In addition,a typhoon evacuation timing choice model based on Quantal Response Equilibrium is established by integrating risk perception and interaction factors for evacuees into the discrete choice model,which laid a foundation of predicting the evacuation demands.Fourthly,on basis of the above analysis,explore the effect factors of individual evacuation behavioral decision making.Incorporate individual risk perception as a latent variable into the individual choice model,by combining structural equation model and discrete choice model,the emergency evacuation demand predicting model based on ICLV model is constructed.Through the analysis of the relationship between the various factors,and the effect of the factors on the utility of individual evacuation behavioral decisions,the predicting model is becoming more explanatory,and achieves the purpose of forecasting evacuation demands,which is the precondition of warning information scheduling.Fifthly,to improve risk communication level in typhoon disaster,put forward the research framework of typhoon warning information scheduling and specific solutions.By using mathematical modeling method,construct shelter assignment model and evacuation warning model.According to the characteristics of the models,design the iterative greedy heuristic algorithm.The output of our model is an evacuation warning schedule,which has considered the time dimension,regional differences and different effects of the typhoon disaster warning sources.The feasibility of the model and algorithm has been proved by a case study.This study provides a scientific method to develop the government emergency evacuation planning,and improve risk communication level.In this thesis,the chain relationship and related concept of warning information,risk perception and response behavior are defined clearly.Take the individual risk perception as the foundation and key issue,the decision-making mechanism of individual behavior is analyzed from the perspective of individual behavior,so that to find out the factors affecting individual behavioral decision-making.Then predict typhoon disaster emergency evacuation demands on the basis of understanding the behavior of individuals.Finally,construct the evacuation warning scheduling model and provides the optimal method to solve the problem.The typhoon evacuation warning information scheduling scheme is obtained.Prove the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method by a practical case study.The result provides the beneficial reference for the government to make the emergency management policy.