Research On Emergency Decision-making Of High-speed Road Network In Typhoon Disaster Area

Natural disasters are one of the major problems facing the global scale.For coastal areas,typhoon disasters are the most frequent and most influential natural disasters.Here,it is also important for population accumulation,national economic and social development.China is one of the few countries in the world that is seriously affected by the typhoon.On average,about 7 typhoons land in China's coastal areas every year.This makes the regional highway network disruption or flooding directly affect the number of people affected and the economic losses.The rapid development of the urbanization process poses enormous challenges.As an important tool for typhoon disaster research,vulnerability research has been promoted to a more important position.The main contents of this paper include:Firstly,in order to evaluate the systematic impact of different traffic control measures on the highway network,a typhoon path classification method based on the affected road sections is proposed.Combined the traffic assignment model with speed limit constraint,taking the Zhejiang Expressway Network as an example,the system impact of traffic control measures on the road network under the typhoon path scenario is studied.The results show that under certain typhoon path scenarios,the closure measures may have a lower impact on the highway network system than the speed limit measures,which is actually caused by insufficient capacity of some bottleneck road sections.The simulation results after the expansion of the bottleneck section indicate that the expansion measures of different road sections can greatly reduce the system influence brought by the traffic control measures.It can provide useful help for decision-making in the expansion and reconstruction of highway road sections.Secondly,from the perspective of the government command department,regardless of human casualties and property losses under the typhoon disaster,with the goal of reducing emergency costs,using dynamic network game technology,Bayesian analysis,and multi-attribute utility theory,a high-speed under typhoon disaster is proposed.The first is to use the typhoon data of Zhejiang Province in recent years,to establish a dynamic game model based on the development of the typhoon and the dynamic changes of information,and to treat the emergency decision-making team and typhoon disasters as the subject and object in a dynamic game.The second is to use Bayesian analysis.Calculate the prior and posterior probabilities.The third is to combine the multi-attribute utility theory,select the sub-scheme according to the different stages of the typhoon according to the principle of maximum utility,and adjust according to the dynamic status quo.At last,the innovation of this paper is to use objective data for modeling and calculation.At the same time,it not only combines vulnerability and emergency decision-making,but also provides a new perspective for road network vulnerability.