The Evaluation And The Adaptation Model Of Earthquake Disaster Risk Of The Tourism In Sichuan-Yunnan Region

As is known to all,a sudden earthquake is hard to predict but with great destruction to social economy and ecological environment of regional system,as well as huge risks to the development of tourism.The thesis focuses on the prevention and mitigation of earthquake disaster to tourism.The Sichuan-Yunnan region has been selected as the typical research area,and the earthquake disaster risk of the regional tourism industry has been regarded as the core research object.The main line of the study is "the time and space distribution rule and the trend of earthquake disaster-the assessment of tourism earthquake disaster risk-the adaptation model of earthquake disaster risk." By integrating Geography,Disaster Science,Management Science and other related theory and method of tourism,the tourism earthquake disaster risk management model has been constructed.The risk evaluation of tourism earthquake disaster and the adaptation model has been studied based on the judgment of the trend of seismic activity.The purposes of this thesis are:to deeply analyze the space-time symmetry of regional seismic hazard,to explore new methods to estimate the future trend of earthquake disasters of Sichuan-Yunnan region,to predict the future earthquake disasters time window and space position,to evaluate the region tourism earthquake disaster risk,to construct the earthquake disaster risk adaptive management model as the regional tourism earthquake disaster risk adaptive analysis tool,to put forward the specific strategies to prevent and reduce the regional tourism disaster.The importance of the research of the thesis is:enriching and perfecting the symmetry of natural disaster research methods,has certain theoretical value in the field of natural disaster research,enriching the study of tourism of earthquake disasters,and providing a systematic guiding framework for the regional tourism.The research contents of this thesis are:(1)the rules and the trend of space and time of earthquake disaster of Sichuan-Yunnan region.(2)the risk evaluation of tourism seismic disaster of Sichuan-Yunnan region.(3)the earthquake disaster risk adaption model of the tourism.The main conclusions of this thesis are:(1)the energy release of seismic activity in Sichuan-Yunnan region has obvious periodic time,about 18.5 years cycle.There are strong signals of bursting 7.0 magnitude earthquake in 2018 and 2021.The Ms?7.0 earthquake activity has good spatial symmetry too,the next location may be:Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone,Dayingjiang fracture or Lijiang-Xiaojin fracture.(2)In the level of beyond the 10%probability of the ground motion in 50 years,the earthquake disaster risk of Yunnan tourism is higher.Aba,Liangshan,Xishuangbanna,Diqing,Yuxi,Dali,Lijiang,Kunming,the earthquake disaster risks of these places are also higher.(3)By the earthquake scene simulation,we found that Lion rock scenic spot,Nandian Xuanfu Sishu,Tengchong scenic area,Shuanglong hotel of Luquan,Yixin hotel of Wuding,Hongsheng hotel of Ninglang and some hotels in Lianghe would be highly affected by earthquake damages directly.(4)With tourism earthquake disaster risk adaptive system,we put forward the basic and innovative strategies of tourism earthquake disaster risk,found that visitors have strong willingness to use the earthquake disaster tourism risk management system based on location services,and design the tourism disaster option bonds.The innovative achievements of this thesis are as the following:(1)By Integrating a variety of methods,which include wavelet analysis,commensurability computing,butterfly structure,commensurability structural system,to judge the time trend of earthquake disaster.A 7.0 magnitude earthquake in 2017 has been predicted and has been confirmed.(2)Finding the space symmetrical structure of seismic activity in Sichuan-Yunnan,expanding the content of research on the earthquake disaster spatial symmetry.(3)The scenario simulation method is introduced into tourism earthquake disaster risk research.This rapid assessment for the earthquake disaster risk of tourism industry provides a more reasonable method.(4)Building tourism adaption model to the earthquake disaster risk,and putting forward specific adaptation strategies for guiding the disaster prevention and mitigation of tourist destination.