Impacts Of Climate Change On Rice Production In Mbeya Region Of Tanzania

Over the years,rice has been providing food to the world population,especially in the Asian continent steered by countries like China,India,and Pakistan.It is in the same vein that almost up to 90% of the world rice is produced in the region and consumed in different areas of the world,Africa inclusive.In Tanzania,the rice sub-sector plays a more significant role,including contribution to the country's economic development and provision of food security to both rural and urban populations.Among the cereal crops,rice is ranked second just after maize in terms of production and consumption by the Tanzanians.Production is carried by small scale farmers,mostly in the rural areas of Tanzania,where about 90% depends on the rainfed rice ecosystem.Being dominated by the rain-fed systems makes the rice sub-sector vulnerable to production variability as a result of frequent weather variations and shock events.This study aimed to answer four specific objectives including;(1)to analyze the influences of household's socio-economic characteristics and the changing atmospheric weather factors on rice production in Mbeya region,(2)to estimate rice farmer's perception,indicators,and awareness to Meteorological factors variations to small scale rice farmers in Mbeya region by the use of the Logistic Regression Model,(3)to establish the relationship between meteorological factors on rice growth stages and rice yields by application of Fisher Regression equation and Chebyshev polynomial function in Mbeya region of Tanzania,and(4)to determine the decision factors for adopting irrigation technology by rice farmers and its contribution to rice yields in Tanzania on the event of weather factors variability.To answer the four mentioned study's objectives,two types of data were used.The first type is primary data pertaining to household socio-economic variables collected from 240 rice farmers residing in Mbarali and Kyela districts in the Mbeya Region of Tanzania.The second type of data is the historical weather time series secondary data from 1981 to 2017 obtained from Tanzania Metrological Agency.The Ordinary Least Square(OLS)multiple regression model was used to establish the relationship between the households' socio-economic attributes and weather factors on rice production.After that,the Garret and Woodworth(1969)descriptive tool was used to analyze and ranking of farmers' perception and indicator variables for weather variability.Multipredictor logistic regression model was used to describe factors for the individual's behavior to perceive the weather variations.The Fisher regression model and Chebyshev orthogonal linear regression model were used to establish the relationship between rice yield and meteorological factors.Finally,the logistic regression model was applied to determine decision factors for adopting irrigation technology,and Ordinary Least Square regression was used to estimate parameters for the contribution of irrigation technology to farmers' income.The results show that socio-economic factors(age,education level,land ownership,family size,marital status,and off-farm employment)play a more significant role in enhancing rice production in the study area.The majority of farmers fall between 30-45 years,which are the vibrant group composed of energetic and potential individuals for rice production.Moreover,most farmers possess elementary and high-level education,which enabled them to accept and adopt various technologies regarding rice production.More importantly,off-farm income contributed to rice production and promoted households' income diversifications,especially during adverse weather conditions.The relationships established by regression models explained the facts on how socio-economic variables and other atmospheric weather variables(precipitation,minimum and maximum temperatures,sunshine)and their associated conditions of floods,droughts,and wind speeds impact rice production.In addition to socio-economics and weather variables,other essential variables such as agricultural extension and technological services,rice prices,fertilizer,and seed quantity have revealed to have contributed to rice production.The study discovered that farmers lack technical information on estimating the correct amount of seeds required per hectare,and they lose up to 16.5 percent of total rice yield per hectare.Further findings have revealed that weather is changing in Tanzania as was perceived by farmers and analysis from the historical meteorological data.The perceptions from farmers have declared that the temperature and sunshine are increasing while rainfall varies from time to time.The prevailing variations deteriorate farm practices,plant growth,production and yields primarily due to drought,excessive rain,floods,extended sunshine,and temperatures.According to the study,some constraints obstructing rice production were pointed out such as poor rainfall distribution,frequent occurrence of diseases and pests due to the increasing temperature and sunshine,lack of access to quality seeds,and inappropriate seed application knowledge.Other identified challenges include inadequate access to extension and technological services(machines,adaptable seed varieties,fertilizer,and irrigation equipment).Due to unreliable rainfall,few farmers(30%)have already reacted by adopting irrigation technology as a means of increasing resilience to weather variability.Application of irrigation has benefited farmers to reap an average rice yield of up to 506.9 kg per ha equivalent to US $ 165 or RMB 1157 earned by a farmer per ha over none adopters.The study suggests that considerations to curb the impact of weather variability on crop production should be a multisector approach.Therefore,it recommends proper actions be taken to address the challenges resulting from weather variability as it affects peoples' livelihoods and well-being.In order to increase rice productivity,appropriate adaptation mechanisms both conventional and technical measures have to be adopted by farmers in the presence of other rice chain players.The mechanisms include utilizing irrigation technology,well adaptable rice seed varieties to environmental factors variability,including droughts,floods,and excessive rainfall,extended sunshine,and wind speeds.The government should intervene by providing subsidies to essential inputs such as seeds,machinery,fertilizer,pesticides,and control produce prices.Moreover,extension and technologies services are critical to farmers,and they should be made available at farmers' disposal,including regular training and information dissemination from pre-production to the post-production process.Since the adaptive mechanisms are expensive to farmers,therefore,it would be wise for intensifying proper coordination between Public-Private Partnership.For example,the government has to create a favorable business environment for inputs suppliers,traders,and also financial institutions that work with farmers.