| Carbon and emissions trading in cap and trade is an important policy tool for global action to address climate change and control greenhouse gas emissions.It achieves emission reduction targets by theminimumsocial costthrough market mechanisms and is receiving more and more attention and practice in environmental policies of various countries.Since 2013,China has carried out pilot projects on carbon emission trading in seven provinces and cities across the country.The study of the unique Guangdong provincial pilots is an important and useful exploration of the national unified carbon emission trading market.Transaction price and its volatility transmission are the most intuitive and core embodiment of the trading market,and play a key role to the influence of carbon emission trading on the market mechanism emission reduction policy.Based on the pilot carbon emission trading market in Guangdong Province,this paper analyzes and tests the price fluctuation transmission mechanism of carbon emission trading market on the practical and operational level by using the relevant data of five performance periods from December 2013 to June 2018.The effectiveness of its operation reveals the law of price fluctuations in the carbon emission trading market in Guangdong Province,which has important theoretical and practical significance.The main research work and innovation contributions are as follows:First,this paper constructed a structural equation model of market price fluctuations to reveal the path of price fluctuations in the carbon emission trading market.The design of emission trading system of Guangdong Province and the distribution of partial quota auctions can quickly give market price signals and regulate market supply.In the carbon emission trading market of Guangdong Province,the trading volume and transaction volume of the market from April to June in each performance period are relatively high,showing the performance-driven characteristics.The price fluctuation of the carbon emission trading market in Guangdong Province has agglomeration effect and leverage effect.The price fluctuation of carbon emission trading can directly affect the energy consumption of emission control enterprises and the R&D investment of emission reduction,thereby achieving the goal of reducing carbon intensity.Secondly,the neural network model for influencing the price of carbon emission trading price reveals the factors that significantly affect the price fluctuation of the carbon emission trading market in Guangdong Province: crude oil price,quota auction price,CER transaction price and clean energy transaction price.Third,from the aspects of market effectiveness and policy effectiveness,the effects of price fluctuations in the carbon emission trading market in Guangdong Province were tested to make up for the vacancy in empirical research.The variance ratio method test shows that the carbon emission trading market in Guangdong Province has not reached the weak effective state.The double-difference model shows that carbon emissions trading policies have achieved policy goals that promote a reduction in carbon intensity.The above research conclusions have important practical guiding significance for the top-level design of the upcoming national unified carbon emission trading market,market operation supervision and regulation. |
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