| Since the "Kyoto Protocol" was signed,more and more attentions have been attached to the concept of low-carbon development around the world.As the world’s largest carbon emitter,China has set up seven regional carbon emission rights exchanges since 2013,and is expected to set up a national carbon emission rights exchange in the future.Faced with the rapid development of carbon emissions market,China needs to seize the rare opportunity to improve the market-oriented construction of carbon emissions,and ultimately achieve the long-term goal of comprehensive energy-saving emission reduction.At present,the research on carbon emission right mainly focuses on its price influence factors and volatility characteristics,and a large number of researches focus on the EU carbon emission right market.From the current perspective,this paper analyzes China ’ "Embryo" status of carbon emissions market.I think research in this paper could be forward-looking and realistic.Firstly,the theoretical part of this paper describes the definition of carbon emission rights in detail,and points out that carbon emission rights have these characteristics includes scarcity,coercion,exclusivity,transferability,policy,volatility and so on.Next,the mechanism of carbon emission rights is divided into three categories,JI mechanism,CDM mechanism and IET mechanism,and the carbon emission trading rules of the market under analysis.Finally,the paper describes the present situation of the carbon emission market,especially the market of carbon emission right in China,and points out the problems about the market,including the imperfect market transaction system,the incomplete system and the price formation mechanism,the laws and the imperfect regulations and so on.Secondly,the empirical part of this paper adopts VEC model to analyze the influence factors of carbon emission price.Before the start of the empirical study,the paper analyzes the factors influencing the price of carbon emission right in China from three aspects: supply,demand and climate,and puts forward the basis of selecting variables.In the empirical study,the data were first analyzed using the stationary test and the co-integration test,and then using the VEC model.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the market price of carbon emission rights in Shenzhen and the CSI 300 index,coal price,oil price and AQI index.(Coal and oil),the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has a positive impact on the price of carbon emission rights,while the AQI index has a negative impact on the price of carbon emission rights.In the following empirical study,I use descriptive statistics and GARCH model to study the characteristics of carbon emission price volatility and asymmetric phenomena in each exchange.The results show that the market returns have characteristics include significant volatility clustering,Non-normal and peak tail.The empirical results of the GARCH model show that the prices of Beijing and Hubei in the four regions are influenced by the external shocks for a long time,while those of Shenzhen and Shanghai have a shorter duration;The cities of Shenzhen,Beijing and Hubei have Anti-lever effect,while Shanghai has the leverage effect.Finally,the paper puts forward some constructive suggestions on the construction of carbon emission right market in China from four aspects: Improve policies and regulations,improve the pricing mechanism,Strengthen market supervision and encourage financial institutions to intervene.Based on the background of the development of carbon emission right,this paper extracts the two key objects of this paper,and adopts the latest data and reasonable model to study it.All of the results of this paper provide the final policy recommendations.I sincerely hope that this paper can provide a reference and help for the comprehensive development of China’s carbon emission market and the follow-up of related policies,and also contribute to China’s green development of the economy a modest contribution. |
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