Study On Regional Difference Of Carbon Emissions And Measurement Of Initial Carbon Quota In China

In the work plan to control greenhouse gas emissions during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period proposed in 2016,the State Council indicates that on the basis of the existing pilot carbon emissions trading sites,trading authorities and trading institutions of voluntary greenhouse gas reduction,the national trading institution network can be established according to the transaction demand of carbon emission permit.In 2017,the carbon emission permit trading market will cover 31 provinces.In the early stage of national carbon trading,the initial quota allocation is the core element.Although there are seven pilot carbon emission trading sites,the started regional carbon trading market does not involve interregional initial carbon quota allocation.In this case,this paper focused on the study of initial carbon quota allocation with different regional carbon emissions.Firstly,the carbon emission development stage was determined,and the regional discrepancy of carbon emissions in China was analyzed by Kernel density function,Theil coefficient,variable coefficient,Gini coefficient and division coefficient.According to the influence factors obtained from previous studies,and by using the spatial econometric model,the direct and indirect effect of GDP,urbanization rate,economic structure,energy consumption,energy structure and population on carbon emissions were discussed in details.On the basis of these influence factors,Endogenous Growth Model was applied to derive its relationship with carbon emissions,then the non-parametric model,LMDI model,SD model,ridge regression analysis and threshold regression model were established to verify their relations.Secondly,as carbon quota allocation is a problem within the 3E framework of energy,economy and environment,the marketing approach of promoting energy saving and emissions reduction by government is not only for fulfilling the promise of emission reduction,but for reducing the conflicts among energy,economy and environment.So before constructing the carbon quota allocation model,the paper took the 3E framework to estimate the coordination of energy,economy and environment in 30 provinces,and further proved the necessity of building national carbon trading market.Thirdly,based on above studies,from the perspective of fairness principle,efficiency principle and balancing fairness and efficiency principle,by using ARIMA and BP neural network to predict GDP,using Directional Distance Function to calculate shadow price,and using three-step DEA to calculate carbon emission efficiency,the Gini coefficient optimized model based on intellectual ant colony algorithm,Zero-sum DEA model,multi-factor mixed weighted allocation model of information entropy were respectively constructed.In addition,the carbon quota of 30 provinces in 2020 were allocated.Finally,the advantages and disadvantages of carbon quota allocation under the three principles were evaluated.By constructing general equilibrium model,a case analysis of Jiangsu Province was conducted to verify the impact of different trading modes and carbon quota allocation on factors such as industry output,social welfare and energy structure.The major contributions of this paper were summarized as follows.(1)From the perspective of energy,economy and environment,the 3E coordination of each province were evaluated,which further demonstrates the necessity and significance of carbon quota allocation.(2)The study focused on the core issue of the early stage of carbon market establishment in China,i.e.The allocation of interprovincial initial carbon quota.From the regional discrepancy and the realistic perspective,the influence of various factors on carbon emissions were analyzed,which meets the status quo of this field.(3)The study breaks the limitation in previous studies that only single principle was considered;the three principles including fairness principle,efficiency principle and balancing fairness and efficiency principle were employed to discuss the carbon quota allocation of each province in 2020.(4)The paper managed to construct a CGE model based on different trading situations;the effect of carbon quota allocation on macroeconomic environment under different principles were investigated.