Research On The Allocation Of Provincial Carbon Emission Quota In China’s Power Industry Under The Unified Carbon Market

China’s power generation and carbon dioxide emissions in the power industry have been ranked first in the world for many years in a row.Coal-fired power generation is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in China.In December2017,the national unified carbon emission trading system was officially launched,and the power industry became the first and only industry to be included.The core mechanism of carbon market is the allocation method of carbon emission quota,which directly affects the stability of carbon price and the effect of performance.In order to give better consideration to the development rights and interests and emission reduction tasks of all regions,the carbon emission quota allocation scheme should meet the principles of fairness and efficiency.On this basis,this paper chooses the responsibility,capacity and potential of emission reduction to build a comprehensive carbon emission index evaluation system,and carries out quantitative analysis on the carbon dioxide emissions of the power industry in each region.According to the calculation of entropy weight method,the weight of emission reduction potential is the largest among the three indicators.In this paper,the hybrid trend extrapolation model is selected as the carbon emission prediction method.It is found that the carbon dioxide emission of China’s power industry will reach the peak value of 4196 million tons in 2030.In order to reduce the cost of emission reduction and promote the activity of carbon market,this paper adopts cluster analysis and differential distribution policy for 30 region in China,and proposes a carbon emission quota allocation mechanism based on weighted voting model to consider the preference of carbon emission quota allocation scheme of power industry in each region.In the mechanism,there are three carbon emission quota allocation schemes based on historical emissions,GDP and population,which are freely selected by each category.The results show that according to the comprehensive carbon emission index evaluation system,30 regions in China are divided into three categories.Category 1 is located in the eastern coastal area with developed economy;category 2 is rich in coal resources and large in thermal power generation;category 3 is relatively small in carbon emission of power industry,but most of the economy is relatively backward.Category 1,category 2 and Category 3 respectively choose the carbon emission quota allocation scheme based on GDP,historical emissions and population as their own optimal scheme.The carbon Gini coefficient test shows that the carbon emission quota allocation scheme proposed in this paper meets the principles of fairness and efficiency.Combined with the above research conclusions,this paper suggests that relevant departments should pay more attention to regions with less emission reduction potential and large thermal power generation,adhere to dynamic adjustment,and reward regions with outstanding emission reduction work to avoid the phenomenon of "whipping fast cattle".