| Rockburst prediction and forecasting is a systematic and complex project.According to the purpose and function of prediction,it can be divided into pre-mining static assessment(also called pre-evaluation)and dynamic monitoring and early warning during mining.Static evaluation is mainly based on historical information such as geological conditions and mining layout;dynamic early warning is mainly based on real-time information such as organization management,advancement speed and monitoring data,real-time information such as on-site display.At present,there is no effective early warning method and model covering the above information,which is an important reason for the low level of prediction and prediction of rockburst.Aiming at this problem,the thesis uses theoretical analysis,on-site monitoring and information fusion technology to study the method of shock pressure-static evaluation and comprehensive early warning model.The main research work and results of this article are as follows:(1)Aiming at the problems of the traditional comprehensive index method with large subjective influences,difficulty in obtaining critical areas,and irrational weighting,based on the study of the influence of various factors on the impact pressure,through factor classification,factor coupling,and normalization,The method and model of static ground pressure assessment based on the improved comprehensive index method were obtained.(2)Based on the principle of seismic CT detection,the relationship between the wave velocity and its change and the impact danger was studied.It was shown that the high wave velocity region and the high wave velocity gradient region correspond to the high impact danger region.The wave velocity anomaly coefficient and wave velocity gradient anomaly coefficient are the main indicators of impact risk assessment methods.The combined analysis of the on-site CT detection and the improved comprehensive index method forms a static assessment method for the pre-harvest shock hazard that combines theoretical analysis and on-site detection.It makes up for some shortcomings in the theoretical method,and makes the impact hazard level assessment and danger area division more in line with the actual situation on site.(3)Aiming at the diversity and complexity of the information about theprecursors of rockburst,from the perspective of comprehensiveness and complementarity,a monitoring scheme based on a combination of microseismic,ground sound,stress and drill cutting method monitoring was constructed.Realization of sub-source,multi-field and full-process monitoring of ground pressure.The physical mechanism and change rules of the information about microseisms,ground sounds,and stress precursors are analyzed.(4)The micro-seismic,ground sound,stress,and drill cuttings evaluation indicators were studied,and a multi-source monitoring and early-warning indicator system for rockburst was formed.The basis and criteria for evaluating the danger of the shock were proposed,and the grading output standards for early-warning information were established.Ground pressure quantitative dynamic monitoring and early warning provided the basis.(5)Aiming at the duplication and contradiction of a large amount of precursory observation information obtained by various monitoring equipments,the improved DS evidence theory is used to deeply fuse redundant,complementary and conflicting information in multi-source monitoring data of ground pressure to achieve A consistent description of shock hazard levels was provided,which significantly improved system reliability,stability,and operability.(6)In order to fully consider background information such as geological structure and mining history formed by rockburst.Based on the R value scoring method for predicting effectiveness,a dynamic and static comprehensive early warning model is constructed.The model covers historical information,actual information and real-time information on the occurrence of ground pressure.The combination of method optimization produces a new fusion result,thereby improving the early warning effect of the entire system.(7)Developed a set of integrated monitoring and early warning platform for shock pressure that integrates interface integration,format conversion,statistical analysis,index priority,weight calculation,and graded early warning.,Real-time monitoring and early warning,information release and remote control functions,field applications have verified the practicability and reliability of the system. |
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