Diffusion Of China's Clean Coal-fired Power Generation Technologies And Its Driving Policies

For a long time to come,coal-fired power generation will still be the main source of the power supply in China.In order to promote the clean development of coal-fired power generation,the government has put forward more and more strict requirements on the emission reduction of air pollutants in coal-fired power plants.Diffusion of clean coal-fired power generation technology is an important way to guarantee China's power supply and to achieve pollution control.After decades of development,the power generation efficiency of coal-fired power generation units and the reduction effect of atmospheric pollutants have been significantly improved.However,at the current technical level,CO₂ emission has not been effectively reduced.With the entry into force of the Paris agreement and the establishment of a national carbon market,carbon emission reduction will become an important constraint factor for coal-fired power generation.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to summarize the diffusion law of the clean coal power generation technologies for improving the innovation of power technology and further promoting the clean development of coal power generation.Firstly,combined with the production link of coal-fired power generation,we analyzed the main ways of clean coal power generation,identified the main technologies of clean coal power generation,qualitatively analyzed the evolution process of technology,and theoretically analyzed the influencing factors of technology diffusion.Secondly,based on the Bass model,we fitted the diffusion process of subcritical,supercritical and ultra-supercritical technologies at the national and regional levels,and analyzed the differences of technology diffusion in different time and spatial dimensions.The evolution of policies to promote the diffusion of high-efficiency coal-fired power generation technology was systematically reviewed and the effects of policies were empirically analyzed.Then,the diffusion process of desulphurization and denitrification technologies at national and regional levels was fitted.We systematically combed the evolution process of air pollutant prevention and control policy of coal and electricity,and empirically analyzed the effect of policy.Finally,based on the multi-agent modeling method,a CCS diffusion simulation model was built to simulate the effects of carbon quota allocation policy and subsidy policy,and the diffusion trend and CO₂ emission reduction potential of CCS technology were predicted.According to the above research contents,the following main conclusions are obtained:?1?The evolution process of coal clean power generation technology is divided into two stages:improving power generation efficiency and reducing the emission of atmospheric pollutants,and will be gradually towards effective control of carbon dioxide emissions in the future.High-efficiency coal-fired power generation technology,desulfurization and denitrification technologies and Carbon Capture and Storage technology are interactional and interdependent.The influencing factors of coal clean power generation technology diffusion include technical characteristics,social network,policy and other macro environmental factors.Among them,due to the public goods attribute of electricity and the externality of pollutant emission,the diffusion of clean coal power generation technology has a strong dependence on the policy,and the effect of government policy intervention on the diffusion of clean power generation technology in the coal power industry is worth paying attention to.?2?Subcritical technology and supercritical technology reached the maturity stage of diffusion in 2012 and 2018 respectively,while ultra-supercritical technology will reach maturity stage in 2028,and there is still some room for growth in the future.These technologies have spread sufficiently in the eastern and coastal provinces and gradually to the coal-rich provinces in the central and western regions.The evolution of the driving policies for efficient coal-fired power generation technology was divided into three stages,namely the initial stage of shutting down small thermal power?1997-2006?,the accelerated stage of shutting down small thermal power?2007-2013?and the stage of ultra-low emission of coal power?2014-present?.On the basis of sorting out the policy contents,three types of policy tools are extracted,including control command policy tools,economic incentive policy tools and information publicity policy tools.The control command policy tools include project approval and elimination of backward units,and the economic incentive policy tools include electricity price control and credit policy.For subcritical technology,the effect of policy on the whole was not significant,and the policy tool of eliminating backward units was significant.For supercritical?ultra-supercritical?technology,the effect of policy on the whole was significant,and the effects of policy tools for project approval and elimination of backward units were significant.Among the control variables,electricity demand,resource endowment and R&D investment also had significant effects on the diffusion of high-efficiency coal-fired power generation technologies.?3?The desulfurization technology reached maturity in 2017 and the denitrification technology will reach its saturation in 2020 in nationwide.In regions with developed economies and rich coal resources,desulfurization?denitrification?technology was introduced earlier and the diffusion rate was faster.In areas with a general level of economic development and abundant water resources,desulfurization?denitrification?technology was introduced later and its diffusion rate was relatively slow.On the whole,the number of the policies for the prevention and control of the air pollutants from coal power plants has shown a volatility and rising trend.The content of the policy has gone through three stages of starting,advancing and deepening.The policy tools mainly include project approval,standard specification,electricity price subsidy,preferential loan and information publicity.The policy as a whole has promoted the diffusion of desulfurization technology.At the policy instrument level,the role of standard norms and electricity price regulation is significantly positive,and the role of other policy instruments is not significant.?4?Diffusion of the carbon dioxide capture and storage?CCS?technology is greatly affected by policies.Under current technology and cost condition,if there is no government support policy,CCS technology may be in the stage of research and demonstration for a long time.Under the scenario of the government's electricity price subsidy and the investment subsidy portfolio,CCS technology will diffuse fastest and most fully,and will reach saturation around 2035.The carbon quota allocation policy will weaken the role of electricity price subsidies.Under the combined scenario,no CCS units will be operational until 2049.The word-of-mouth has helped the diffusion of CCS technology.In terms of the CO₂ reduction effect,the more fully CCS technology diffusion is,the better carbon dioxide reduction effect will be.Reducing the proportion of free carbon allowances could reduce CO₂ emissions slightly,but the reduction is be limited.Finally,according to the research conclusions,the policy recommendations for further promoting the clean development of coal power generation were put forward from three aspects:optimizing the structure of coal power capacity,controlling the emissions of air pollutants and reducing CO₂ emissions.There are 49 figures,55 tables and 231 references in this thesis.