| Climate change is a hot topic.As a responsible country,China takes the initiative to undertake emission reduction responsibilities in the climate negotiations,making the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP in 2030 to be 60%-65% lower than that in 2005.Industrial enterprises,as major emitters of carbon dioxide,are facing carbon emission constraints by a series of low carbon policies,including administrative regulation,carbon tax and carbon trading,etc.When enterprises face these policies,upgrading low carbon technologies is the most fundamental and effective way to deal with it,as it can reduce energy use and carbon emissions from the source.However,due to the increasing diversification of consumer demand,enterprises have to design and product products more complex.Thus,the production of products involves more and more processes.Therefore,enterprises are facing more and more choices when they upgrade their technologies.How to select the optimal technology upgrade strategy has increasingly become an important problem to be solved in the enterprises.This paper is based on the the relevant research at home and abroad and takes manufacturing enterprises as the research object.This paper researchs how enterprises can choose the optimal low carbon technology upgrading strategies under different low carbon policy,and discusses how enterprise can the carry out a scenario for emission reduction cooperation in a technology upgrading way.The main research contents and innovations are as follows:(1)This paper improves the ‘Multi-Agent System combined with Genetic Algorithm'method(IMASGA),and proposes an optimization model considering the choice of production technology and the selection of raw material suppliers,and brings out the low carbon technology selection strategy under the constraints of administrative regulation policy.This paper discusses how enterprises should optimize the selection of production technology and its raw material suppliers to minimize production costs under the rigid constraints formulated by the government.A 0-1 integer programming model is constructed to describe this problem,and the IMASGA method is proposed to solve this model.It is found that the improvement of IMASGA method is effective.It not only reduces the computing time,but also improves the accuracy of calculation to a certain extent.(2)This paper proposes an optimization model considering the short-term technological upgrading costs and long-term carbon tax costs,and brings out the technology upgrading strategy under the constraints of carbon tax policy.This paper discusses how enterprises should choose the right low carbon technologies in the right processes to upgrade their technologies,in order to achieve carbon emission reduction,so as to achieve a balance between technological upgrading costs and carbon tax costs.This problem is constructed by using the 0-1 integer programming model,and the IMASGA+method is proposed to solve it.It is found that the enterprise has to pay more upgrade cost in general when the carbon tax rate increases;in the relatively strict control scenario,the carbon tax rate is more sensitive to the enterprise;excessive carbon tax may make the enterprise to give up its technology upgrade plan.The enterprise may pay less upgrade cost in general when its expected cost increases;in the low carbon tax policy scenario,the expected cost is more sensitive to the enterprise;excessive expected cost may make the enterprise satisfied with status quo and not to plan a technology upgrade.(3)This paper uses decision-making units in a more detailed way from the level of the whole enterprise into the level of the enterprise's production processes,and divided the enterprises into two categories: the core enterprise and the cooperative enterprise.This paper proposes an optimization model considering the capital cooperation and technical cooperation,and brings out the technology upgrading strategy based on the emission reduction technology cooperation among enterprises under the the constraints of carbon tax policy.This paper constructs the independent carbon emission reduction model to analyze each enterprises' basic information when they reduce carbon emission without cooperation(such as total costs,profits,and so on).Based on this information,the enterprises are divided into core and cooperative enterprises and both capital and technical cooperation are considered in the cooperative carbon emission reduction model.The MASE method based on the multi-agent system is presented to simulate the negotiations between the enterprises and is then used to solve the cooperative carbon emission reduction model.It is found that there are slight increments in the profit of the cooperative enterprises and a large increment for the core enterprise,which makes total profit of the whole enterprises restores to the level before the carbon tax was imposed.Without changing the total upgrade cost,the cooperation in the carbon emission reduction can rationally allocate of reduction investment and rationalize the structure of the emission reductions within the supply chain,so that the total carbon emission per final product is further decreased.Therefore,under the carbon tax policy,cooperative carbon emission reduction has more advantages than independent carbon emission reduction.(4)This paper introducing the bidirectional influence between carbon price and enterprise's emission reduction decision into the optimization model,and proposes an optimization model considering the capital cooperation,technical cooperation and the sharing of emission reduction information,and brings out the technology upgrading strategy based on the emission reduction technology cooperation among enterprises under the the constraints of carbon emission trading scheme policy.In this paper,an independent emission reduction model is constructed to analyze the benchmark benefits(including profits,carbon prices,trading quotas,and so on)which will be considered in the cooperative.The cooperative carbon emission reduction model is proposed based on the above three cooperation.The MASE+ method based on the multi-agent system is presented to solve the cooperative carbon emission reduction model.It is found that the cooperation can increase the profits of enterprises,and make enterprises have a certain amount of carbon quotas can be sold.Under the carbon tax policy,when an enterprise increases its investment on emission reduction,it often chooses the better low carbon technology in the decision-making,which makes the total emission lower.However,under the carbon emission trading scheme policy,the enterprise's decision will be affected by both the investment and the carbon price.When the enterprise increases its investment on emission reduction,it may not choose the better low carbon technology in the decision-making. |
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