Research On Evaluation And Time Sequence Optimization Model For The Development Of Regional Renewable Energy Power Generation Projects

Energy is the foundation of social and economic development.With the rapid development of China's economy,the consumption of energy is surging.Considering the increasing depletion of fossil energy,renewable energy(RE),as a strategic choice for energy structure optimization is playing an increasingly important role in environmental protection and carbon emission reduction.Stimulated by various incentive policies,renewable energy power generation(REPG)in China has experienced tremendous growth in the last decade,especially wind power and solar power,whose cumulative installed capacity has kept world-leading for years.However,problems such as disorderly development of renewable energy power generation projects(REPGPs),idle capacity,waste of investment and RE resource have also emerged as its rapid development.The 13th "Five-year Plan" period is a cruical stage for China's low carbon transformation of energy structure.China's economic development has entered a new normal situation.The relationship of energy supply and demand is generally eased and the growth of energy consumption is slowing down.The government document-Guiding opinions on the establishment of target guidance system for the development and utilization of renewable energy,issued by the National Energy Administration in 2016 highlights to establish an evaluation system for the development and utilization of RE.In addition,The 13th Five-Year Plan of energy development puts forward to build a clean,low carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system.Faced with these new requirements,and the ambitious goals that China pledges to promote the proportion of RE in total energy consumption to 15%and 20%by 2020 and 2030 respectively,it is necessary to explore how to realize a good and fast development of REPG.This paper focuses on comprehensive evaluation and time sequence optimization for the development of renewable energy power generation projects(DREPGPs),aiming to offer references for REPG project investors in decision-making and the government to formulate more targeted incentive policies for the industry.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)Explore the status quo and existing problems of the DREPGPs in China.General situation of electric power production structure,RE resources and the DREPGPs in China are extensively reviewed.Furthermore,four prominent problems that restrict the DREPGPs are critically analyzed.(2)Establish the fuzzy interpretive structural model(FISM)and matrice d'Impacts croises-multipication applique a classement(MICMAC)model for critical factors(CFs)influence the development of regional renewable energy power generation projects(DRREPGPs).By extensive muti-facet content analysis,a framework of factors affecting the DRREPGPs is formulated,composed of 43 factors under 9 dimensions.Then,12 CFs affecting the DRREPGPs have been extracted by applying principal component analysis.FISM is then established to illustrate the intricate interrelationships among the CFs.The 12 CFs are further classified into four clusters by applying the MICMAC model to demonstrate their driving force and dependence power for the DRREPGPs.(3)Establish the evaluation index system and integrated evaluation model for the DRREPGPs.Facing the fact that China's energy development has entered a new normal stage,the growth of energy consumption is slowing down,and RE power curtailment is severe,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the DRREPGPs from the industry chain perspective:RE resources utilization,RE power production and RE power consumption.Comparing with typical weighting and evaluation methods,a combination weighting method and TOPSIS evaluation are proposed to assess the DRREPGPs.The DREPGPs of 10 typical provinces of China has been comprehensively assessed and analyzed as an empirical study.(4)Construct an improved genetic algorithm(IGA)based multi-objective time sequence optimization model for the DRREPGPs.The concept of time sequence optimization for the DRREPGPs is proposed in this paper.Guided by stipulations in The 13th Five-Year Plan of energy development,the multi-objective time sequence optimization model for the DRREPGPs is constructed based on the clean,low carbon,energy saving,economic and safe principle,and IGA is proposed and applied to obtain the Pareto optimal results.Comparison with the results form dynamic programming on an empirical study proves the proposed model is reliable and effective.Comparison with the results from genetic algorithm(GA),particle swarm optimization(PSO)and ant colony algorithm(ACO)on the empirical study shows that IGA is advanced and practical in solving the multi-objective time sequence optimization model for the DRREPGPs.With clean substitution strategy moving forward constantly,the number of REPGPs will gradually increase.The identification and analysis of CFs affecting the DRREPGPs,evaluation index system and model for the DRREPGPs,as well as time sequence optimization model for the DRREPGPs can provide theoretical and practical references for the government and REPG project investors in aspect of feasibility analysis,project development evaluation and project planning.