Analysis Of Regional Intercity Trip Chain With Rail And Highway Modes

In recent years,the transport infrastructure has developed rapidly,especially the development of freeway,high-speed railway and inter-city rails.The scale of the integrated transportation network has been expanded continuously.The network layout and structure have been improved.The level of facilities and equipment has been continuously improved and the transportation capacity has been greatly enhanced.After more than 30 years of reform and opening-up,the transport industry has made great progress,and various modes of transportation develop rapidly,thus forming a comprehensive transportation network including urban road,highways,high-speed railways and intercity rails.However,due to the long-term isolated development of various modes of transport,there still exist some problems such as incompact transition,capacity mismatch and irrational allocation of resources.The development of integrated transport is by no means a simple superposition of several modes of transport,but the organic combination of various modes of transport.Therefore,it is necessary to break the existing situation of passenger transport mode and to construct an integrated transportation network for inter-city passenger travel,which provides a convenient,safe and comfortable travel environment for inter-city travelers.The integrated regional passenger transport market within rail-roadcombined transportation network is taken as the research object.Combined with the present situation and trend of the development of rail-road transport system,thispaperstudies the modeling problem of intercity passenger travel chain in Pearl River Delta.The regional intercity traveler chain is studied systematically in the aspects of inter-city passenger travel choice behavior and service demand survey,travel distribution forecast,travel mode selection and inter-city and feeder transport links in the resource allocation,through some methods in mathematical statistics,mathematical modeling and so on.Firstly,we investigated the intercity passenger travel choice behavior and service demand.Data acquisition and analysis are used to analysis the relationship between the intercity passenger travel service,travel demand and the questionnaire data including travel purpose,travel mode,travel time and space distribution,data,quantitative.By using structural model,the influencing factors equation of reginal intercity passenger trip chain is constructed.The matching degree of SEM and the choice of intercity passenger travel mode are analyzed,and the sample data fitting calculation is carried out to quantify the influence of passenger travel mode selection index value.The results show that passenger travel demand in the Pearl River Delta region will continue to grow with the economic development,and the number of regional passenger trips chain will increase significantly,and the demand for intercity passenger travel chain will increase significantly.The mechanism of inter city passenger transfer is explained,and the composition and trend of intercity passenger travel chain service demand are analyzed.The prediction of intercity passenger travel distribution is studied basedon the change of travel behavior characteristics among intercity residents being obtained.Based on the location theory,the traditional gravity model is improved by considering the urban location advantage factor,and the Furness model is used to predict the passenger share rate of various transportation modes.Based on the empirical study of intercity travel between 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta region,the travel distribution of intercity passenger travel between cities is predicted,which provides a theoretical basis for the development of traffic planning and the recent traffic management strategy for urban agglomerations.To solve a multimodal transportation in the comprehensive system in the passenger flow rate sharing in urban agglomeration,this paper proposes a two-layer nested Logit(NL)model of the rail-road modes of transport passenger flow to forecast model sharing rate,and employs two stage estimation method to divide NL model into a binomial Logit(BL)model and multinomial Logit(MNL)model.The passenger takes the problem in Guangzhou Shenzhen traffic corridor with 4 modes of transportation as a case,which includes bus,railway,highspeed railway and intercity Railway.The highway and railway passenger flow partaking rates,and railway transport mode in the existing railway,high-speed rail and intercity railway passenger sharing rate by 2020 are obtained through the prediction.The results provide a decision-making basis for overall consideration of coordinated development and resource allocation of different transportation modes.Based on the forecast of the reginal passenger travel distribution and the passenger share rate of different transportation modes in the Pearl River Delta region,this paper studies how to rationally configure the transportation resources of intercity transportation modes.Two kinds of total capacity allocation methods are proposed to solve the three problems of regional passenger travel,such as the total amount of transportation resources in the originating city,the transportation capacity of intercity transportation modes,and the matching of the connection resources within the target city.Then,from the point of view of transportation distribution capacity and connection coordination,the method of resource allocation between intercity and feeder links is proposed,and the optimal capacity matching model is established to meet the minimum transport capacity required by passenger transfer.Taking Guangzhou Zhuhai intercity corridor as a case,the model is proved to be of high reliability.