| Water diversion project is an important way to alleviate the contradiction of water supply and demand between areas,to realize the scientific and reasonable allocation of water resources,to promote the coordinated development of regions.Water diversion project can not only improve the water supply conditions of water-receiving areas,promote the production of animal husbandry,industry and agriculture,it also can provide a better investment environment for economic development,and play a significant role in improving the quality of drinking water,people's health and social stability.But for a long time,water diversion project has been top-down and one-way managed by the government,public lack autonomous management right which lead to low enthusiasm and one-sided cognition,so the value of the water diversion project is not enbody.Furthermore,the great multidimensional value of water diversion project like economic value,social value,ecological value and so on lack effective methods to evaluate.It isn't conducive to the realization of the sustainable utilization of water resources in China.Therefore,the research of multi-dimensional value of water resources has important theoretical and practical significances to protect the water resources,to promote the utilization of water resources and to speed up the formation of water market in China.Now the ecological environment value and social economic value of water diversion project are assessed by qualitative method,or only qualitative or only quantitative.The assessment is not scientific and systemic enough,not only lacking of systemic index system,but also the method system needs more consideration.Under this situation,the paper studys the water resource value index system and its assess method deeply.The paper builds a water resource value assess system of water diversion project and use the north to south water diversion project in Bejing as an example to explain this systm,the main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the labor value theory,utility value theory,land rent theory,the ecology value theory,environmental value theory and so on,the water resources value theory of water diversion project is clear.Starting from the environmental value theory,and on the basis of a large amount of material reference and experience,the paper puts forward the water resources value of water diversion project should include ecological value,environmental value,social value,economic value,as well as the characteristics of regional value.Water resource values assess index system for water diversion project is established,which can provid theoretical basis for comprehensive assessment of water resources values of water diversion project,water value assessment method system is the feedback of index system.The system points out the specific way of evaluation of each index and the overall evaluation method.Each index of evaluation research can obtain various quantitative or qualitative evaluations,and the comprehensive evaluation analyzes the contribution to the development of the regional water resources,which can improve the public recognition of"price"of water resources,help the implementation of the marketization of resources and environment.According to the characteristics of the south to north water diversion project in Beijing,the paper sets up the water resources value assessment method system for it,puts forward a water source distinguish,multi-index and half structure fuzzy mathematical model to evaluate water resource value totally.(2)The ecological environment value of water diversion project is studied with the energy theory analysis method.Puting the energy flow,material flow and money flows together,then studying the quantitative calculation method of the value of each component index,finally adding the south to north water into the power system as a renewable energy to assess the water ecological environment value of the water diversion project scientificly,comprehensivly.The value sequence of the ecological and environmental indicators in 2015 Beijing:water supply>scientific education>biological diversity>water quality purification>ecological water compensation>Prevention of land subsidence>entertainment>regulation of water resources>climate regulation>net primary productivity>biomass carbon release oxygen>biomass.Among them water supply has the biggest value,accounted for 27.49%,it means the south to north water brings great benefits to Beijing's industrial,agricultural production and living.In 2015,the ecological environment value of water resources about Beijing's south-to-north water diversion project was a total of$782 million,totaling 4.97 billion yuan.(3)Social and economic value of water diversion project is analyzed,and according to the characteristic of water receive area and the project,several representative social and economic indicators are selected and analyzed quantitatively.The paper constructs the general equilibrium model of Beijing(BJCGE),and some conclusions are obtained according to the simulation results.From the perspective of social value:The employment structure of the three-industry will change along with the reduction of water supply from south-to-north water diversion project;the primary industry and secondary industry increases but the tertiary industry decreases,especially the proportion of high water consumption industry;if the reduction of water supply from south-to-north water diversion project is higher than 302 million m~3,there will be a risk of inflation;unemployed increases.From the perspective of economic value:The proportion of high water consumption industry decreases along with the reduction of water supply from south-to-north water diversion project under different policy scenarios;GDP decreases along with the reduction of the water supply from south-to-north water diversion project under different policy scenarios,generally,the decrease rate of GDP is smaller than water supply reduction rate,but as further reduction of water supply,the GDP decrease rate has an increasing tendency;with the scenario of no water supply from south-to-north water diversion project,the GDP is 2046.69 billion yuan,reduces 250.17 billion yuan compared to base scenario;and the per capita disposable income is 46421 yuan,reduces 2037 yuan compared to base scenario,so the level of urban competitiveness declines.(4)According to the characteristics of Beijing,the political value is selected as its special regional value,and the water resources reserve value and the strategic resources value of it are evaluated respectively.The strategic resources value is assessed with Delphi method qualitively,and the carrying effect of south to north water to the implemention of Beijing's Thirteenth Five-year Plan,the development of the integration of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region,the implementation of the Beijing's new airport construction and the construction of the Beijing vice center are studied respectively,the result shows south to north water is a very important strategic resource to Beijing.The reserve resources value is calculated with the contingent valuation method quantitatively by questionnaire.The questionnaire is to investigate the regional residents'awareness and acceptance of the south to north water diversion project in Beijing to assess its reserves value.The results show the water resources reserves value of south to north water diversion project is 915 million yuan.The bayesian network model is introduced into the field of payment intention influencing factor analysis,and the factors influencing the value of water resources reserve in Beijing are obtained.Through setting the parameters of each node in Bayesian network model,the influence of different node states on the value of the water resources reserve operation of Beijing can be obtained.The key influence factors of willingness to pay can be concluded by sensitivity analysis of the bayesian network model which includes:public support degree of spending human,material and financial resources to reserve water resource,willingness to participate in the public benefits acitvities,the public's perception of Beijing's water shortage situation,family income and awareness of the project.Finally,the node variables which are concerned greatly by policymakers like different education degree,different careers,public awareness of the shortage of water resources in Beijing and the public awareness of the project are detailed analyzed.China's future environmental strategy turned to the market gradually,the the influential factors of willingness to pay analysis can provide the basis for the government and planning department to know the public payment behavior of environment and resources,and provide the basis for decision making in the future.(5)The research of the comprehensive assessment of water resources value based on water transfer project is a problem which both have quantitative and qualitative indicators,it is also a combination of structural and non-structural multi-objective Semi-structural problem.The paper puts forward a multi-objective Semi-structural mathematics model.The weight of each index is obtained by analytic hierarchy process method,combining with the advantage of neural network model,the value of each qualitative index is calculated,further the total value of the diversion of water resources in Beijing is got comprehensively,about 456.13 billion yuan.The result shows:social and economic value>ecological environment value>political value,the social and economic value is far greater than the ecological environment value and political value.With the continuous increase of water volume in Beijing,the comprehensive benefit will be increased. |
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