Study On Evaluation And Optimization Of Water Resources Balanced Allocation Schemes In Water-receiving Area Of A Water Diversion Project

Water resources balanced allocation scheme based on mathematical model is the distribution scheme of different water sources between various users.However,it is difficult to judge whether it is reasonable and feasible.The impact on regional development is also hard to measure.On the other hand,there are less researches on scheme optimization,which leads to a lack of basis for water resource managers to adjust the existing schemes.Considering these problems,this paper takes Shandong water-receiving area of South-to-North water diversion project as an example to carry out water resources balanced allocation evaluation and optimization research.In water resources balanced allocation scheme evaluation,the paper studied evaluation index system establishment,index weight determination and evaluation methods selection.There were two steps in index system etablishment,including index building and quantitative selection.Firstly,according to evaluation connotation analysis,it was concluded that index system should cover four aspects,that is,economic benefits,social benefits,ecological benefits and water resources development and utilization.Secondly,this paper put forward correlation analysis-rough set model for quantitative index selection.AHP-entropy weighting method was used to determine the weight,therefore the deficiencies of single weighting method were improved.Improved TOPSIS model,normal cloud model,fuzzy matter element model and projection pursuit model were selected to evaluate water resources balanced allocation scheme.Evaluation results show that the overall situation of Shandong province in 2015 was not optimistic;the situation of coastal cities were relatively better,and cities in southern and northern area of Shandong province were the worst;the rest cities were between the above two situations.Social benefits were the worst overall;economic benefits were the best;ecological benefits were relatively ideal;the overall situation of water resources development and utilization was poor.Thus,it was necessary to formulate strategies or measures to optimize the existing schemes.In water resources balanced allocation effect optimization,the paper studied from qualitative and quantitative aspects.As for qualitative aspects,SWOT analysis was used to propose four types of development strategies including SO,WO,ST and WT.Jinan and Binzhou should choose SO strategies;Qingdao,Dezhou,Jining,Heze,Liaocheng,Weifang and Zaozhuang should select WT strategies;the best strategy of Zibo was WO;ST strategies were most suitable for Yantai,Weihai and Dongying.As for quantitative aspects,the main affecting indexs of water resources balanced allocation were ecological water ratio,industrial added value growth rate,sewage treatment rate,GDP growth rate and water resources development and utilization rate.Then 14 different optimization schemes were put forward,including three types,that is water-saving economical,economical environmentally-friendly and water-saving environmentally-friendly.In the index forecasting process,an isometric Gray-Markov forecasting model was proposed in order to improve the forecasting accuracy.Through the evaluation of various optimization schemes,it was concluded that improving economy and urbanization level,and attaching importance to environment protection were important measures to improve water resources balanced allocation.As for environment measures,the sewage treatment rate had reached a higher level in all cities,so this index was insensitive to improve water resources balanced allocation effect,and it was more effective to raise ecological water ratio compared with sewage treatment rate.Where possible,high improvement combination of main affecting indexs should be adopted.