Research Of The Decision-making For The Development Model Of Comprehensive Energy Supply System In Small And Medium-sized Towns

China is at a critical stage of the development of urbanization.The continuous increase in energy consumption has brought increasing pressure on resources and the environment.The contradiction between energy supply and demand has become one of the main obstacles to the development of China's urbanization in the future.In particular,energy development in small and medium-sized towns faces many problems,such as the low supply-side energy efficiency,high energy consumption and not fully utilized of the advantages of combined heat and power.Meanwhile,it also appears in the the poor capacity of demand-side economy,small and dispersed demand and more complex energy security issues under open conditions.All of that have seriously affected the sustainable development of energy and has brought great challenges to the high-quality development in small and medium-sized towns.Comprehensive energy supply has become an important strategic direction in the global energy field in the future.As the top priority,the decision-making research on the development mode of integrated energy supply systems for small and medium-sized towns can effectively alleviate the pressure on China's energy supply and demand,and improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of primary energy.The large-scale development and consumption of renewable energy would also be promoted and the safe,economic,and clean energy development would be realized in small and medium towns.Thus the sustainable development of social energy could be promoted in China.The thesis mainly focuses onthe development mode applicable to the integrated energy supply system for small and medium-sized cities and towns in China.A new strategy for the systematic development of comprehensive energy supply and development was proposed by using coal-based back pressure distributed thermal power units as the basic energy source and renewable energy as the supplementary energy source with a supported heat pumps and energy storage to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system for small and medium towns.The feasibility of the decision method is verified by case analysis.The main research contents are as follows:(1)In order to alleviate the contradiction between energy supply and demand in small and medium-sized cities and towns,the decision-making goals of the comprehensive energy supply system development model are analyzed,and the development mode of the integrated energy supply system is discussed.By using the Nash negotiation method,the integrated energy supply system development model for the optimization was constructed.The system performance was continuously improved using of the priority strategy to ensure that energy supply solutions continue to dominate in the process of energy development.(2)A security offensive and defensive strategy suitable for the integrated energy supply system was established,based on the increasing openness of the external conditions of the integrated energy supply system and the complex coupling of the multi-energy system in the internal environment in small and medium towns.A three-tier zero-sum master-slave game model of the defender-attacker-defender for the comprehensive energy supply system was constructed using security game theory.Through the security offensive and defensive strategy analysis,the defense capability of the system in the event of a real attack is improved.(3)An economic optimization model was constructed by the theory of fuzzy linear programming,to improve the economic efficiency of the integrated energy supply system based on the problem of poor economic efficiency of the back press in small and medium towns.The problems of poor economics of the coal-based back-pressure machine and weak adjustment of peak and valley could be solved,optimizing the selection and equipment backup and making it have the condition of engineeringapplication.(4)The best collaborative utilization model of traditional energy and new energy was explored for the demand of clean energy use in small and medium-sized cities and towns.Based on the gray number evolution game theory,a dynamic evolution model of traditional energy and new energy replicators is constructed.The influencing factors of energy cooperative utilization are analyzed by calculating the saddle point value of the mode.The optimal stable equilibrium region is sought to promote multi-energy sustainable cooperation,and using the emission reduction rate can estimate the effect of the cooperation model.(5)The evaluation index system of the decision-making for the comprehensive energy supply system(CESS)in small and medium-sized towns was constructed,and the systematic evaluation for the development model for CESS in small and medium-sized towns was carried out.A decision evaluation model is constructed based on triangular fuzzy number and bounded rational decision method.The selected key indexes can be used to quickly and accurately evaluate the decision-making scheme of CESS in small and medium-sized cities and towns.It provides decision basis for further optimizing energy supply scheme.