| Customized passenger transport,one of the innovative service models of "Internet Plus" road passenger transport,precisely matches the transportation resources based on the travel reservation demands of passengers,and better meets the "point-to-point" and "door-to-door" intercity travel demands of passengers.However,the current operation plan of customized passenger transport is mostly based on the scheduled passenger transport mode or human experience,lacking effective theoretical and methodological support,which limits the development of customized passenger transport and the improvement of operational efficiency.Therefore,it is of great significance to research and put forward the optimization method of customized passenger transport operation plan for the promotion of customized passenger transport service mode and the improvement of service level.Oriented to the background and demands of the development of customized passenger transport,this paper analyzes the service characteristics of customized passenger transport.Based on the investigation of customized passenger transport choice behavior,the model to analyze the choice behavior mechanism of customized passenger transport is established.Then the optimization method of stops setting,route design and timetable compilation is proposed,which provides theoretical method and technical support for the optimization of customized passenger transport operation plans.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow in typical passenger stations,a RP-SP questionnaire for choice behavior of customized passenger transport is designed,including social demographic characteristics of passengers,travel characteristics,choice intention scenes,and psychological factors measurement.A combination of offline and online methods is used to carry out the survey.The analysis of survey data shows that the proportion of male respondents is 44.93%,and that of the age group between 26 and 45 is 69.32%.The gender and age distribution of respondents are basically consistent with the full sample data extracted based on passenger tickets.Conventional bus and taxi are the main means of travel from the starting point to the passenger station,accounting for 46.79% and 26.38% respectively.(2)The ICLV model of customized passenger transport choice behavior considering psychological latent variables is established.Based on the survey data,MIMIC model,BL model and ICLV model are estimated for travel behavior of customized passenger transport,and the choice intention and behavior mechanism are revealed.Through elasticity analysis,scene design and simulation calculation,the influence mechanism of travel time and ticket price on customized passenger transport choice behavior is studied.The result shows that reservation time window,the advance or delay time of vehicle arrival,transfer time,travel time,and ticket price have a significant negative impact on the choice of customized passenger transport.Compared with the BL model,ICLV model takes into account the constraint of passenger psychological factors,which can be more comprehensively describe the passenger choice behavior of customized passenger transport.With the increase and decrease of service level and ticket price,the sharing rate of customized passenger transport shows an increasing and obviously decreasing trend respectively.(3)A method to extract regular bus parking stops based on trajectory data and an improved DBSCAN algorithm is proposed.Core potential stops covering all reservation points are determined considering the importance of potential stops and based on theory of set covering.A mixed integer programming model for dynamic stops setting with minimum walking distance and minimum number of dynamic stops is established,and an improved genetic algorithm based on core stops is designed.The case study shows that the correct rate of the regular bus parking stops is 90.83%.Compared with the single demand data of travel reservations,the joint data optimization model considering regular bus trajectory data has better solution quality,faster solution efficiency,and can ensure that 100% of dynamic stops have the road conditions for vehicle traffic.(4)Considering the balance between the growth of customized passenger transport operating profit and the improvement of travel service level,according to the relationship between the penalty function value for vehicle arriving at the dynamic stop violating the reservation window and the satisfaction function value for travel time reduction of customized passenger transport,the function of passenger willingness to pay for additional fares is proposed.Then the dynamic ticket price function of customized passenger transport is defined,which is related to the ticket price of scheduled passenger transport,transfer fares and passenger's willingness to pay.Based on the different reservation time windows and reservation points in the service area,the example was studied.The result shows that the decrease of the difference between the arrival time of vehicles and the earliest or the latest reserved time of passengers,and the increase of the difference between the customized passenger transport travel time and the scheduled passenger transport travel time,will lead to the increase of ticket price and passengers' willingness to pay.(5)Based on the defined function of passengers' willingness to pay and dynamic ticket price,an optimization model of dynamic route and timetable for customized passenger transport is developed considering maximize the operating profit of passenger service operators.The optimization effects of the model under different operation modes and vehicle configurations were studied.The sensitivity analysis of dynamic ticket price function and travel reservation demand is carried out.The case study shows that the operation plan based on the optimization model can satisfy the travel demand of passengers' reservation time window and alighting and boarding,and effectively improve the passenger volume and the operating profit of the customized passenger transport.Compared with the traditional scheduled passenger transport,the daily passenger volume of the customized passenger transport can increase by 110.93%,and the daily operating profit can increase by 8196.62 yuan.Sensitivity analysis shows that the increase of the travel reservation demand can improve operating income and operating profit,but does not significantly improve operating costs. |
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