The Effect Of China's New Energy Automobile Industry Support Policy

In order to promote the sustainable development of new energy vehicle industry,since the launch of the "national high tech research and development plan" electric vehicle major project in2001,China has introduced a series of support policies in the production,consumption and operation of new energy vehicles.With the implement of supporting policies,China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked first in the world for five consecutive years,and both exceeded one million in 2018;the technological innovation capability of new energy vehicle enterprises has been significantly improved,and great progress has been made in the technological innovation of three core components of battery,motor and electric control.At the same time,the implement of supporting policies also exposed many problems: excessive dependence on financial subsidies has resulted in high compensation fraud events in 2016;and the number of new energy vehicle patent applications of China has declined significantly since 2015,and the patent quality needs to be improved.The reasons behind it are worth studying,and it makes us reexamine the effect of the supporting policy in China.In this context,the policies that support the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry are undergoing dynamic adjustment.Since April 2015,the Ministry of finance,the Ministry of science and technology,and the Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued four policy documents to formulate,adjust and improve the decline mechanism of the new energy vehicle industry subsidy standard.Whether the decline mechanism is reasonable,where should the industry subsidy policy go in the near future,and how to achieve sustainable development of new energy vehicle enterprises in the post subsidy era are worth pondering.In view of this,this paper analyzes the effect of those supporting policies from the theoretical and empirical aspects,and specifically analyzes two problems: one is the supply effect of support policies of supply and demand side,that is,the effect of support policies on the behavior of new energy vehicle enterprises;the other is the demand effect of support policies of supply and demand,that is,the effect of support policies on the behavior of new energy vehicles consumer.In the first place,this paper analyzes the supply effect of bilateral support policies from the theoretical and empirical aspects.At the theoretical level,based on the research of Murray et al.(2014)and Zhou Yahong(2015),this paper introduces the demand side support policy tools into the theoretical model,constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the effect of the supply anddemand side support policies on the behavior of new energy vehicle enterprises,so as to identify the determinants of the economic behavior of new energy vehicle enterprises,such as optimal production capacity and optimal R&D investment.On this basis,using the data of Listed Companies in the automobile industry from 2001 to 2018,the paper employs PSM and other methods to test the effect of bilateral support policies on the profitability and technological innovation investment of new energy vehicles enterprises.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,according to the theoretical analysis framework,the optimal production capacity and R&D investment of new energy vehicle enterprises mainly depend on the following factors:marginal cost of R&D;elasticity of market share to price;elasticity of market share to technology level;uncertainty probability of demand market;marginal contribution rate of demand side subsidy amount to market demand;probability of the success of R&D,etc.Among them,the effect of bilateral support policies on the profitability of new energy vehicle enterprises depends on the relative size of the positive and negative effects;the effect of bilateral support policies on the R&D capacity of new energy vehicle enterprises is relatively small.At present,the competitive advantage of new energy vehicle enterprises in China is mainly reflected in price competition rather than technology competition.Secondly,the empirical analysis results show that the supply-demand bilateral support policies have a significant positive effect on the profitability of new energy vehicle enterprises,but the effect are weakening;while the supply-demand bilateral support policies have a small and insignificant positive effect on the R&D capacity of new energy vehicle enterprises.In the second place,this paper analyzes the demand effect of bilateral support policies from the theoretical and empirical aspects.At the theoretical level,the demand market of new energy vehicles is divided into three categories: government procurement market,commercial operation market and private passenger market,and the mechanism of supply-side support policy tools such as R&D subsidies,infrastructure and promotion demonstration to the demand market is discussed;and the the mechanism of demand-side support policy tools such as purchase subsidies,tax relief and priority power to the demand market are also discussed.On this basis,using the data of 88 new energy vehicle promotion and demonstration cities in 2010-2018,this paper empirically tests the effect of bilateral support policies on the three types of demand markets of new energy vehicles,and employs quantile regression method to analyze the effect of bilateral support policies on different scale demand markets.The study finds that:Firstly,there is a significant difference in the effect of the bilateral support policies on the three types of demand markets.It is mainly reflected in two aspects:(1)the bilateral support policies of the new energy automobile industry have less effect on the government procurement market,but greater effect on the commercial operation market and private passenger market;(2)the supply-side support policies have less effect on the three types of demand market,while the demand-side support policies have more direct effect and the effect is greater.Secondly,there are differences in the effects of the two-sided support policies for the new energy vehicle industry on different scale demand markets.More specifically,with the continuous expansion of the scale of government procurement market,the effect of bilateral support policies on government procurement market shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing;and with the continuous expansion of the scale of commercial operation market,the effect of bilateral support policies keeps increasing in general.While the effect of support policies for supply and demand on different scales of private multiplier are different,to be specific,the effect of supply-side support policies increases with the expansion of private market,while the effect of demand-side support policy increases first and then decreases with the expansion of private market.The conclusions of this paper expand the theoretical analysis framework of the supply effect of the supporting policies to a certain extent,and enrich the theoretical discussion of the demand effect of the those policies;on the other hand,they demonstrate the rationality of the new energy automobile industry subsidy standard decline mechanism,and provide suggestions and enlightenment for the formulation and implementation of the new energy vehicle industry support policies,as well as the sustainable development of new energy vehicle enterprises in the post subsidy era.With a view to promoting the continuous development and growth of China’s new energy automobile industry,and finally realizing the dream of being a automobile power.