Research On The Development Path Of Intelligent Vehicle From The Evolution Of Smart Transportation Self-organizing System Perspective

"Internet+"requires systematic thinking for the restructuring of industries.The essence of upgrading intelligent vehicles driven by informatization is the"Internet+"for the auto industry which serves as the breakthrough for China in its way leading to be a manufacturing powerhouse.For this purpose,China has been fully prepared in the fields such as the development and the accumulation of the productive capacity and the suitable motivational social value.This paper combines theoretical and empirical research methodologies,and applies synthetically a variety of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods from Systematology.First,on the basis of system theory and self-organizing city theory,this paper has put forward the theory of smart city self-organizing system(SCSS).Second,it has made a detailed and fundamental analysis of the relevant literatures on the topic of smart transportation system from the database of CNKI.Based on the feature of abstract consistency of both the subsystem and the whole system of the self-organizing system,this paper discusses the driving forces of the self-organizing evolution of the intelligent transportation system with the SSCS theory,and analyzes the operation mechanism of the smart transportation system with the intelligent vehicle as its core.And on the basis of the analysis mentioned above,the theoretical analysis framework of analyzing the development path of intelligent vehicle from the perspective of the evolution of smart transportation system is constructed.Then,it adopts patent analysis,scenario analysis,technology roadmap planning and other methods in order to explore the important factors that affect the development of intelligent vehicle,predict the development of intelligent automobile industry,and discuss the development path of intelligent vehicle.In the end,this study puts forward some suggestions to promote the healthy development of intelligent vehicle.The main content of this research and the innovative work are as follows:(1)The self-organization system framework of smart city is built to analyze the self-organization mechanism of smart city system,and the driving forces and order parameters of the self-organization system’s evolution are explored.Different from other studies,which often use self-organization theory to analyze the complexity of urban spatial structure,in this study,the novelty is embodied in the adoption of cellular automata(CA)model as an analogy to the smart city evolution mechanism based on mimicking the human body.With this setting,various types of smart devices are defined as“smart cells”.By applying information communication technology and adopting institutional system(smart cell is the cell in the model,and information and communication technology and institutional system are the rules in the model),various elements of smart cities are deeply integrated and connected on the same horizontal level,thereby enabling the vertical evolution of system functions.Smart cells form smart tissues,which form smart organs,which form smart systems,which ultimately form smart cities.Based on this analysis,the following conclusions are obtained:smart cells,information and communication technology,and institutional system are the driving forces for the evolution of smart city self-organization system;core smart cell is the order parameter of system.Hence the operation mechanism of smart transportation with intelligent vehicle as the core can be analyzed in depth.(2)Analyzing the relationship between the self-organization evolution system of smart transportation and the development path of intelligent vehicles basing on the SSCS theory,a theoretical analysis framework to analyze the development path of intelligent vehicles from the perspective of the evolution of smart intelligent transportation system is constructed.According to the development status of intelligent vehicle in the self-organization evolution of smart transportation system,the order parameter equation(u=g(i_k,j_n)k,n=1,2,3……)is built.In the equation,i_k and j_n are factors that promote or dampen the order parameters and the evolution of the whole system.The influence of these factors on the value of order parameter equation is discussed by a systematic analysis method that combines various qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.(3)The empirical research framework integrating qualitative and quantitative methods is established,and the development path of intelligent vehicles is discussed based on the systematic research thinking.First,according to the authoritative resources,the intelligent vehicle technology system is divided into four dimensions,namely:perception technology,decision-making control technology,information interaction technology and related scientific and technological forces.The core technologies included in each dimension are refined and therefore they form a list of driving forces of the technology dimensions in scenario analysis questionnaire of the intelligent vehicle industry development.The patent technology of intelligent vehicle is analyzed in order to find the key technologies and theirs changing trend.Then,taking the conclusion of technical analysis as reference,the driving force list that has impacts on the development of intelligent automobile industry is formed by integrating social,economic,energy and environment,policy and technology factors.The driving force list is a possible independent variable of the order parameter equation.Through expert interviews,the key driving forces are found,which can be concluded as follows.Technology and policy factors have the greatest influence,and three uncertainty axes are formed by eight driving forces with strong uncertainty and significant influence(A:market demand and preference for intelligence,B:R&D investment and construction status of intelligent road network,C:establishment and completion of institution system).Then,the most optimistic scenario,the most pessimistic scenario and the most likely scenario are choosed out of the scenarios derived from the three uncertainty axes.Regarding on the selection results,experts are optimistic about the market under each of the three scenarios;except for the most pessimistic scenario,experts are optimistic about investment;in addition to the most optimistic scenario,experts are pessimistic about institution system construction.Finally,based on the conclusion of technology analysis and scenario analysis,the relationship between the important driving forces is discussed.Besides it is found that artificial intelligence technology and the investment in intelligent road facilities are the barriers restricting the development of intelligent vehicles and that the construction of institutional system shall conform to the law of self-organization evolution.Based on the conclusions above,the development path of intelligent vehicles is analyzed and described as follows.First,the overall evolution process of intelligent vehicle to intelligence,network connection,new energy and sharing is described.Second,the evolution path of intelligent road network investment mode is analyzed.Third,the construction path of institutional system is discussed.(4)Based on the theoretical analysis framework and empirical research conclusions,this paper puts forward systematic countermeasures and suggestions.First,the strategies are proposed from the perspective of promoting the smart transportation system self-organization evolution in terms of the three driving forces:smart cells,information and communication technology and institution system,which includes further,changing the governance concept,focusing on the improvement of the number,popularity and intelligence of the smart cells;strengthening the R&D and application of information and communication technology;and constructing the institution system that conforms to the law of smart transportation system self-organization evolution.The strategies to guide a healthy development of intelligent vehicles can start from the two barriers,i.e.,investment in the construction of intelligent road network and artificial intelligence technology,more specifically:cultivating new innovative subjects;fully tapping innovative resources;strengthening open cooperation in production,learning,research,government and application fields;collaborative research and development;strengthening the key core technologies of intelligent vehicles and intelligent road network;focusing especially on all advantageous resources in order to break the technology barriers of artificial intelligence;reconstructing profit model of intelligent automobile enterprises with systematic thinking of“Internet+”;referring to the high-speed rail model in order to innovate the business model of intelligent road network;broadening financing channels,and,ensuring investment intensity.There are 37 figures,27 tables and 155 references in the paper.