Research On The Energy Transition In Rural China

Orientated by strategy ofprioritized development of urbanization and industrialization,the Chinese government has focused on the supply and demand of urban energy and national energy security,and largely neglected the development of the rural energy consumption and environment pollution.Hence,we carry out this study to analyze,normatively,inductively,and empirically,the internal mechanism on the rural energy consumption following the frame design of finding problem,analyzing problem and solving problem from macroscopic to microcosmic viewpoints,by utilizing energy economics theory,consumer behavior and farmer behavior theory to build up analytical model and econometric model,based on time series and cross-section data,macroscopic statistical and field survey data.We start with a survey on the change of energy supply and demand and lifestyle of households in rural China.Based on time series and cross-section survey data of energy consumption for rural households in Shanxi,Guizhou and Zhejiang provinces,we comprehensively analyze the characteristics and structure of energy consumption in rural households,and find out the rule of energy wave transition in rural China.From the perspective of energy life cycle,we build up a theory and model of energy wave transition.At the same time,we propose several indexes of consumption structure in the energy wave transition and verified the model based on national energy consumption statistical data of China.Furthermore,we empirically analyze the path of rural energy consumption wave transition of Shanxi,Guizhou and Zhejiang provinces in China,and reveal the general wave transition rule of energy consumption structure in rural households.Based on the theoretical model,we design econometric models to empirically analyze the energy consumption behavior of rural households.Finally,following the conclusion of the theoritical and empirical analysis,we put forward several measures to promote consumption structure in energy wave transition and provide suggestions for national energy security from a new perspective.The study is conducted gradually as follows.Firstly,based on the data of energy consumtion from national statistics and field survey on rural households,we analyze the change in energy supply and demand and lifestyle of rural houshold.We find that China's government has ignored the problem of rural energy consumption.With rapidly development of rural economy,the energy consumption in rural areas is not only sharply increasing in demand,but also in a process of a structure change of the energy consumption,which is considerably behind the development in urban areas,likely leading to a huge negative impact on energy conservation and emissions reduction.Secondly,based on large sample survey data of rural energy consumption in three provinces of Shanxi,Guizhou,and Zhejiang,we empirically analyze energy consumption of rural households,such as quality,purpose,and popularity of coal,firewood,oil,electricity,and gas.We also compare the differences of rural energy consumption across regions.We find that with economicdevelopment in these rural regions,the energy demand has rapidly increased and transformed from non-commercial traditional energy to modern commercial energy.However,because of the dispersion of lifestyle and energy use and inefficiency of commercial energy supply for rural households,the rural energy consumption has become one of the important sources of growth in energy demand and carbon emissions.Energy consumption structure of rural households is closely related to income.With the income growth,the consumption of traditional energy gradually declines,such as the firewood and coal,and the modern clean energy markedly increases,such as electric.This shows that the general upgrading process of China's rural energy consumption.Notice that energy consumption has been influenced by not only income,but also energy resource endowment,energy availability,energy supply services and influence of energy policy and life-style,resulting in considerable regional differences in rural energy consumption structure.Thirdly,starting from energy ladder and energy stacking model,we propose a life-cycle curve of energy consumption and construct a wave transition theory of rural energy consumption structure over time and income.Furthermore,we bulid innovatively an index system of energy consumption structure wave transition to empirically analyze the wave transition of energy consumption structure.Fourthly,based on the energy consumption data of rural households in Shanxi,Guizhou and Zhengjiang provinces,we adopt the theory of energy wave transition to empirically analyze the energy wave transition path of consumption structure in rural China over time and income.We find a clear energy transition path.Energy consumption in these rural areas has two obvious transition points over time in 2000 and 2028.In 2000,the energy consumption in the three provinces has transformed from firewood to gas energy.In 2028,rural households use higher share of gas energy instead of coal energy,completing the transformation from firewood to coal and furtherly to gas.Over income,with income growth of rural households,the rural energy consumption structure has undergone three obvious transition points.Three transition points occur when household disposable income are 2500 yuan,33600 yuan and 40700 yuan.Consequently,the wealthiest rural housholds realize the transition from solid to liquid and clean energy.As a measure of energy transition level,the Energy transtion index of energy consumption efficiency has increased and Energy transition index of energy consumption environment has declined over time.As expected,the relationship of household income with energy transition index of energy consumption efficiency is "U" type while the relationship of the income with energy transition index of energy consumption environment is inverted "U" type.These results fully demonstrate that the energy-environmental kuznet's curve hypothesis is valid in these rural regions.Fifthly,China's rural energy consumption structure is closely related to energy consumption behavior of rural households,which is influenced by multiple factors.Based on the survey data of rural households in Shanxi,Guizhou and Zhejiang provinces,we build econometric model to empirically analyze and discuss energy consumption behavior and its driving factors from two dimensions of energy consumption and comprehensive energy consumption of rural households.We find that household income is an important factor affecting energy consumption behavior of rural households;the price of clean energy and the service level of clean energy supply are two main factors restricting modern clean energy consumption in rural China;the characteristics of rural households are also one of the important factors,althought its importance varies over energy type;other factors such as supply adequacy of electric power,coal price subsidies and energy policy,also have certain impact depending energy varieties.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical analysis mentioned above,we summarize main conclusions of this research,and propose several suggestions for energy consumption structure transition in rural China.Generally speaking,we should reduce the share of coal consumption;increase the shares of gas,electricity and other clean energy;and promote energy consumption structure transition from low to high energy consumption.Particularly,we put forward the following measures and suggestions to optimize rural energy consumption structure transition.1)Rural energy consumption should be takene an important part of national energy strategy to ensure that the transition of rural energy consumption structure is promoted by policies of environmental protection,energy conservation and emission reduction.2)Establish and improve supply service system of modern clean energy in rural areas and improve consumption environment of rural energy consumption.3)Follow the general rule of transition of rural energy consumption structure to develop rural renewable energy consumption and supply.4)Establish and improve institutions of transition of rural energy consumption structure and provide subsidies to support rural households who consume modern clean energy.5)Strengthen education of energy conservation,emissions reduction and environmental protection in rural areas and guide the behavior of transformation from high pollution to clean energy consumption.