Evolutionary Political Games:Examination Of Re-emergent Lake Malawi Boundary Dispute Between Malawi And Tanzania.

This study examined why dormant territorial boundary disputes are re-emerging in Africa by analyzing resurfacing and endurance of Lake Malawi Boundary Dispute between Tanzania and Malawi.Departing from the trraditional approach of examining territorial boundary disputes from the lens of historical and colonial boundary dimensionsonly,we investigated from a multidisciplinary approach;nation-states' shift in political decisions relating to territorial boundary politics and conduct of foreign policy in light of competing interests to access and utilize economic oil and gas resources in the nation-states frontiers.The thesis further examined why initiatives pursued by the disputants and regional body to resolve the matter at independent third party mediation level seems proving futile.The researcher also touched on investigating crystallized nation-states' inherent norms attached to the politics of territorial integrity and sovereignty rights as superimposed on mattersof interstate boundary disputes.Employing the logic of game and conflict management theories,the analysis and discussion of the field research findings and results highlight key features of dispute re-emergence and why Tanzania has decided to shift its territorial politics and conduct of its foreign policy with respect to the status quo on Lake Malawi ownership.The researcher argues and contends that to a larger extent,the lake boundary dispute resurfaced after about fifty years of dormancy simply because of competing and diametrically opposed economic interests that the two disputants have in accessing and utilizing perceived gas and oil resources from the lake for growing and building their respective economies.It is further argued that the economic interests as imbedded in this dispute are superimposed on matters of political,historic and nationalistic interests.It is therefore these issues that are highly fueling escalation and endurance of the dispute since each actor is focused on winning the contest for protection and defense of their economic and political interests.In line with the logic of both conflict management and game theories,it was established that countries pursue territorial foreign policies that guarantee them high chances of securing their self-interests for survival.Therefore,the resurfacing of Lake Malawi Boundary dispute is suggestively explained by issues of economic and political opportunities engrained in strategic territorial lake boundaries seemingly perceived to contain oil and gas resources for economic growth.Because nation-states are calculative and strategic in their economic growth projections,we found that both Malawi and Tanzania being rational actors in the international system value pursuing policies that would secure them economic resources and capabilities to grow their economies.The incompatibility of their respective economic and political policies relating to securing,defense and protection of Lake Boundary territories were the causative factor which significantly induced resurfacing of the lake boundary dispute.Having noted that these factors played a key role in triggering dispute re-emergence,and that the mediation process has derailed because of domestic and nation-interest forces;the researcher highlights and points out three significant mechanisms that policy makers and political leadership in the two countries need develop and implement as part of the process to resolve and manage the dispute.Firstly,policy makers and political leadership in the two countries need to take decisive steps to incorporate views of local people/leadership in resolving the matter through bilateral dialogue and negotiations.Very often,bilateral dialogue and negotiations on the dispute have not included local leadership.The two communities who live along the shorelines of the contested portion of the lake have peacefully co-existed for a number of years without encountering serious confrontation when utilizing the resources of the lake.It would therefore be in the interest of the two disputants to continue negotiations on this suggested basis while taking on board the views of local leadership.Secondly,if bilateral negotiations and dialogue cannot yield positive results,then the disputants may decide to go back for independent third party mediation but the mediation team need be revisited to reflect current regional political realities on matters of territorial disputes.The need to incorporate other people from outside the SADC region to ensure impartiality in resolving the matter would be paramount if the parties were to have confidence in the suggestions of the mediation process.The initial process of mediation initiated by the Forum of SADC's Former Heads of states and Government was perceived biased in its composition as it included some actors with high stakes in the dispute.This therefore calls for reconstitution of the mediation team if need arise to continue with this path of dispute mediation.Thirdly,the researcher argues and contends that the initiative to pursue joint resources development as a compromise strategy to resolve the matter need be pursued since the two parties had employed the same approach during the time when they were resolving the Songwe River boundary dispute.Lastly,the thesis argues that the dispute need not be solved at ICJ level through judicial arbitration or adjudication processes as this could be costly,time consuming and tiring process.Malawi stands to lose a lot if Tanzania were to decide to employ issue-linkage to punish the former in case it exclusively win the case since most of imports and exports of Malawi passes through Tanzania seaports.However,if the dispute is not resolved at all levels,the parties could pursue the process of ICJ arbitration as the last resort as was the case in the Nigeria-Cameroun dispute over Bakassi oilfields and Namibia-Botswana conflict over Kalisisili.The thesis concludes by emphasizing the need for policy makers and political leadership in both countries to set aside their domestic political interests in the issue so that the dispute could be handled and resolved from the lens of mutual benefit and win-win situation.To this effect,the study was increasingly suggestive that an approach of joint resources development in lake frontiers would be non-costly approach to manage and solve the re-emergent lake boundary dispute.